4 ms·
That's surely worth something, but it's easier to think of estimates as a 90% outer bound: "I am 90% sure that the task will be completed by date X." Uncertaint
by ktRolster 10y ago
That's surely worth something, but it's easier to think of estimates as a 90% outer bound: "I am 90% sure that the task will be completed by date X." Uncertainty can be incorporated, and you don't need to learn a new conversion factor from time to points.
- DougWebb 10y agoThat doesn't work when you can't predict what other tasks might interrupt you between now and date X. That's why estimating in units of effort is much more reliable than units of time. The drawback to units of effort is that estimates eventually bubble up to non-technical people who don't discern the difference between effort and time, and for most projects there are going to be some time-based constraints on the schedule.
- ktRolster 10y agoThat doesn't work when you can't predict what other tasks might interrupt you between now and date X You can still take a probabilistic approach to tasks that might interrupt you.