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I'm hearing lots about this low-growth economy from various major news sources, but it doesn't seem to me to be consistent with the data that I can look up on m
by mac01021 10y ago
I'm hearing lots about this low-growth economy from various major news sources, but it doesn't seem to me to be consistent with the data that I can look up on my own.
For example, the chart here seems to me to show regular traditional reasonbly-fast growth rates.(http://www.statista.com/statistics/188105/annual-gdp-of-the-united-states-since-1990/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/188105/annual-gdp-of-the-...)
If you look at a 20-year plot of the S&P 500 (not the same thing as the GDP, I know, but still some kind of indicator of economic health) the net growth probably is low, but only because of the giant housing crash that causes a rapid setback right in the middle of the time period we're measuring. It looks like we've been growing at full speed ever since.
So what's the deal?
- somethingsimple 10y ago> It looks like we've been growing at full speed ever since. S&P 500 valuations after the crisis are out of touch with reality. Look here: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/. The stock market is incredibly overpriced i.e. companies' earnings aren't growing as much as people and institutions are buying stocks, driving their prices up. The reason for the bull market is that with near zero interest rates, everyone is looking for an investment vehicle that offers better inflation-adjusted returns than cash and bonds, even if it means taking more risk.