4 ms·

Each are edge cases and nothing which can't be fixed by further work. >The concept that every driver can/will be replaced by an autodrive bot is naive. The pr

by drcross 10y ago

Each are edge cases and nothing which can't be fixed by further work. >The concept that every driver can/will be replaced by an autodrive bot is naive. The premise is that the driver aspect will be removed, the things you mentioned are not strictly what a driver does.

sandworm101 10y ago
> the things you mentioned are not strictly what a driver does. They are according to the drivers I know. Long haul truckers are not like pilots. They are much more involved with their rigs. They are actually responsible for maintenance. They are the ones talking to the cops when/if they hit an inspection station.
- NotSammyHagar 10y ago
  It's not that every single driver will be gone - just a lot of them will be. There used to be a lot of jobs at stables, horse shoe replacement, etc. Today there are a lot of jobs changing oil, mufflers, tune-ups etc, that will go away with the switch to electric cars, but one big truck can carry a lot more freight than a big wagon train, and it needs less human labor. EVs will still need work, they are designed and made by humans (at least for a while, ha ha) so they can break like anything else. But you will need fewer humans probably. I heard a story on NPR last night where an insurance company was planning for new businesses, because they expect there to be less need for them with less human drivers and a lot fewer accidents. Not next year, but in 10 years. Just like one truck can do a lot more transportation than a wagon train with 10 hourses. You have some jobs taking care of trucks, but fewer than took care of horse trains. Horses didn't travel as far, so you needed a lot more places for them to stop and feed and water. I think it will hollow out the middle of the us even more. I'm not crazy about that, I'm from that middle of the country that already has continued to hollow out even without robot cars.
  - sandworm101 10y ago
    > Today there are a lot of jobs changing oil, mufflers, tune-ups etc, that will go away with the switch to electric cars. But that isn't much of an issue with big rigs, nor with cars generally. The engine/powertrain isn't a big maintenance item on new cars. Engine internals are a very evolved and reliable bit of kit. It's the other things like brakes, wheels, control systems and electrics are the source of most maintenance costs. Those aren't going away with a shift to electrics. Some things will transfer over (air filtration) and new things will appear (battery systems maintenance) and, looking at teslas, powertrain maintenance will still be a thing. With autodrive, there will be a host of systems that now need new maintenance. And, given that the driver isn't there to fix the little things on the spot, there may be an increase in demand for mechanics that can travel to locations. Lastly, any switch to autodrive may radically increase trips to the mechanic. Plenty of cars drive around with engine warning lights on permanently. If you know what the problem is, sometimes you just live with it. Just look at the number of cars with blown headlights. An autodrive system might not be so willing to tolerate faults. We may have to keep the vehicles to a higher standard, increasing maintenance needs. (Also a great day for parts manufacturers.)
    - drcross 10y ago
      Those points are all very weak. You seem to be in denial that the vast number of automotive jobs are going to be eradicated even when they are reskilled to cater for the newer systems that are coming.
      - sandworm101 10y ago
        And you seem to have converted to a tech that has yet to see the road. Come back when we have some actual labour data, not speculation. I've seen many automotive techs come (FI, antilocks, engine management, collision avoidance, onstar) each with warnings about diminished labor costs, warnings mostly from people who couldn't change their own brake pads. Yet little has changed.

by drcross 10y ago

sandworm101 10y ago

> the things you mentioned are not strictly what a driver does. They are according to the drivers I know. Long haul truckers are not like pilots. They are much more involved with their rigs. They are actually responsible for maintenance. They are the ones talking to the cops when/if they hit an inspection station.

NotSammyHagar 10y ago
It's not that every single driver will be gone - just a lot of them will be. There used to be a lot of jobs at stables, horse shoe replacement, etc. Today there are a lot of jobs changing oil, mufflers, tune-ups etc, that will go away with the switch to electric cars, but one big truck can carry a lot more freight than a big wagon train, and it needs less human labor. EVs will still need work, they are designed and made by humans (at least for a while, ha ha) so they can break like anything else. But you will need fewer humans probably. I heard a story on NPR last night where an insurance company was planning for new businesses, because they expect there to be less need for them with less human drivers and a lot fewer accidents. Not next year, but in 10 years. Just like one truck can do a lot more transportation than a wagon train with 10 hourses. You have some jobs taking care of trucks, but fewer than took care of horse trains. Horses didn't travel as far, so you needed a lot more places for them to stop and feed and water. I think it will hollow out the middle of the us even more. I'm not crazy about that, I'm from that middle of the country that already has continued to hollow out even without robot cars.
- sandworm101 10y ago
  > Today there are a lot of jobs changing oil, mufflers, tune-ups etc, that will go away with the switch to electric cars. But that isn't much of an issue with big rigs, nor with cars generally. The engine/powertrain isn't a big maintenance item on new cars. Engine internals are a very evolved and reliable bit of kit. It's the other things like brakes, wheels, control systems and electrics are the source of most maintenance costs. Those aren't going away with a shift to electrics. Some things will transfer over (air filtration) and new things will appear (battery systems maintenance) and, looking at teslas, powertrain maintenance will still be a thing. With autodrive, there will be a host of systems that now need new maintenance. And, given that the driver isn't there to fix the little things on the spot, there may be an increase in demand for mechanics that can travel to locations. Lastly, any switch to autodrive may radically increase trips to the mechanic. Plenty of cars drive around with engine warning lights on permanently. If you know what the problem is, sometimes you just live with it. Just look at the number of cars with blown headlights. An autodrive system might not be so willing to tolerate faults. We may have to keep the vehicles to a higher standard, increasing maintenance needs. (Also a great day for parts manufacturers.)
  - drcross 10y ago
    Those points are all very weak. You seem to be in denial that the vast number of automotive jobs are going to be eradicated even when they are reskilled to cater for the newer systems that are coming.
    - sandworm101 10y ago
      And you seem to have converted to a tech that has yet to see the road. Come back when we have some actual labour data, not speculation. I've seen many automotive techs come (FI, antilocks, engine management, collision avoidance, onstar) each with warnings about diminished labor costs, warnings mostly from people who couldn't change their own brake pads. Yet little has changed.