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While this is true mathematically, I prefer to think about the opportunity cost of not having a UBI. I (like perhaps many people on HN) basically wasted my 20s
by zackmorris 10y ago
While this is true mathematically, I prefer to think about the opportunity cost of not having a UBI. I (like perhaps many people on HN) basically wasted my 20s trying to make rent while I worked on my shareware game company. I basically failed at that and all of that code went obsolete before it earned me income.
Had I had a relatively small UBI of perhaps $12,000 per year, I could have met expenses long enough to get ahead of the curve. I wouldn't have spent that time burned out and getting sucked into dead end $20,000 per year jobs that took all of my time and energy.
So for me, not having a UBI and throwing away a rather prolific 20 something probably cost the US GDP growth whatever my business might have contributed for a decade, say whatever a typical game developer salary might be (perhaps $60k/yr), call it $600,000. That could easily be 2, 4, 10 times that much if we grew enough to hire other employees.
By not investing in the workforce like the country did with public works before the information age started in 1980, my generation (gen x) lost out on at least a 5x rate of return. My struggles happened just before Prosper and Kickstarter got big, so I ran up staggering credit card debt. Had we chosen a more progressive route, even at a 20% tax rate I would have paid the government back what it paid me, with the bonus of life sucking a whole lot less.
I think a UBI might be one of the few things that can raise the 10% startup success rate because it attacks burn rate directly. It would also allow startups to focus on things more meaningful than video games and social media apps because it wouldn’t just be about trying to get enough F.U. money to get left alone anymore. I had always planned to save enough to be able to work on AI and alternative energy, and now with consistent hard work I have a chance of doing it, but with a middle aged realism that is just not helping my motivation. To be 20 again and told “go do all the things” is one of my deepest wishes and I hope it happens for future generations.
- superuser2 10y agoThat $600k of production is based on the idea that you would have worked at some point, and people would have consumed your work. That is very different from "let's all stop producing and consuming."
- ido 10y agoProduced and consumed digital works, which have no deleterious effects on the environment.
- superuser2 10y agoOkay - the growth sector these days (to the extent that there is one) is already services not manufacturing.
- stevenwiles 10y agoYou're saying energy is free?
- ido 10y agoThe electricity required for running a computer is negligible compared to, say, manufacturing a car. And we can eventually move most/all electricity production to green methods but manufacturing physical items will always require physical resources.
- shawn-butler 10y agoThe production and consumption of digital works has plenty of "deleterious" effects on the environment.
- galtwho 10y agoI disagree that the economy lost out in the situation you gave. In the absence of your success, some other games developer generated 600K of benefit for the economy. + or - a few 1000's yeah sure his game would have been crappier than yours
- daurnimator 10y agoIt's not a zero sum game.
- Scea91 10y agoThere are many ways to gain funding now if you are expecting returns of the investment. The only thing different about UBI is that it is unconditional.