> For the major carmakers, [car sharing] could mean catastrophe. I don't see this. A car currently lasts for 100,000-150,000 miles. Typically, several differ

> For the major carmakers, [car sharing] could mean catastrophe. I don't see this. A car currently lasts for 100,000-150,000 miles. Typically, several different owners use it for 10-15 years before it's worn out. If a car is 80% utilized, it will rack up the mileage much faster, and the owner (whether you, Uber, or Ford) will have to buy a new one in a year or two. Maybe the fleet market will start demanding longer-lasting cars. If so, manufacturers will have reason to charge more. Or maybe cars will move to a two-year obsolescence cycle like phones. In any case, the amount we spend on cars will roughly track how far we travel. > Starting as soon as a decade and a half from now, large numbers of people around the world will get around by hailing driverless taxis that operate like robots, so ubiquitous that they will arrive an average of a minute after being summoned by an app. I only partly see this. People who live in city centers already hail taxis. Uber may well displace the taxi industry, but they aren't growing the market (ignoring future takeout delivery plans). Outside the densest cities, it's still not clear that fleet cars make sense unless the price seriously undercuts the status quo (the notorious 10X improvement).