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> But the thing is, the formalist output of algorithms is not necessarily in agreement with what political power actually does in the real world. I think this
by dmreedy 10y ago
> But the thing is, the formalist output of algorithms is not necessarily in agreement with what political power actually does in the real world.
I think this is where your argument makes a pretty big assumption. It's not just problematic that formalisms don't yield outputs in line with whatever political agendas are at play[1]. It's that formalisms don't necessarily yield outputs in line with reality, by definition. They yield outputs in line with their models. Sometimes that model is explicitly encoded in some chunks of logic. Sometimes that model is implicitly encoded by optimizations run over massive swathes of data. Neither approach guarantees anything other than a best fit model for the reality presented in the data.
This is why these systems are so good at playing games. The information is perfect (usually). The rules of the universe have been agreed upon by all parties, and all permutations of state are equally observable and explicable according to those rules. In such an artificial setting, you can be pretty confident that your model is emulating the true set of rules to the best of its ability; that it cleaves pretty close to reality.
In reality, however, information is far from perfect. We can't agree on what the rules are. We don't really have a lot of data, relative to how much stuff happens. The data we do have often isn't particularly granular. Often times, it's based off of abstractions and metrics that are -not- algorithmically based (test scores being a typical example), that may encode biases[1]. We don't know the degree to which different features interfere with each other, and the degree to which they can be considered independent. Thus we don't know whether a given feature selection is 'good'[2]. And most importantly, we can't decide on what the right questions to ask are, and thus we don't know if the data we -do- collect even paints a sufficiently complete picture to model in the first place.
So I think the concern is predicated around something simpler than you're describing, but somewhat obscured by poor choice of terminology. Algorithms can be trusted, mathematically. It's the data that's the problem. And with sufficient bad data, or even just insufficient good data, you can get those trustworthy algorithms to paint you any kind of picture you want. Even if you don't know you want it. Even if it's not so much a thing you want, but more a thing you don't not want[3]. And if anything, algorithmic decisionmaking risks reinforcing extant power structures far more than toppling them; because they're often the ones collecting the data in the first place.
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[1] I really dislike that linked Stucchio post. The toy example about automatically normalizing for biases makes a pretty huge assumption; that some higher-level, easily-accessible metric will provide enough signal so as to drown out the bias. I'm not convinced that this is ever the case in social/political reality, and I'm almost completely convinced that it's never the case. But this is my particular bias.
[2] This is somewhat analogous to Dijkstra's quip on testing being sufficiently only to prove the presence of bugs, not their absence. In a world of imperfect information, you can't be sure that you're right; you can only be sure that a given line of thinking is wrong.
[3] c.f. Yudkowsky's revision of Hanlon's Razor
- yummyfajitas 10y agoAlgos may fail to reflect reality. That's easy to measure. But insofar as they don't, there is no way reason to believe their errors go in one direction or the other. For example, in our supposedly anti-black society, test scores are biased in favor of blacks (and against women). The existence of unknowns simply does not support a case against algorithms or formalism - informal decision-making has the same unknowns and more (namely you can't even know the model). In short, you are pulling the postmodern shuffle - demonstrating that there are unknowns, and assuming those unknowns support your position.
- dmreedy 10y agoI don't think it's always so easy to measure as you're asserting; to really measure it, you have to have some idea of what the reality is, which is the whole problem in the first place. You can get some of the way there by approximating, but again, that's begging the question. The existence of unknowns absolutely does not support a case -against- formalism, agreed, but it does support a case against the absolute support of formalism. I agree that informal decision-making is just as bad (and often worse) but it has the quasi-benefit (I should really say, 'comforting effect') of a massive, historied infrastructure of ethics and judgement/punishment to make it look like it's fixing itself when a problem happens. Trying to avoid looking like I'm defending that system; it's mostly clear that it's pretty bad as well. And obviously all the different subsystems disagree as well, but they are somewhat accommodating of disagreement. So I'll agree half-way that I'm pulling a postmodern shuffle, but I don't want it to come off that I'm asserting that unknowns support my position. I'm trying to take the weaker position that the existence of unknowns makes it currently impossible to objectively pick one position over the other, and that extended defense of either will eventually reduce to dogmatism. EDIT: Something else that's been nagging at me.... There's a further category of unknown that is unlearnable by pure signal-based statistical modeling. A purely statistical approach to such things as ethical decision making, even in a world with more consumable data than our own currently, would still not be able to solve that problem. I'm not sure how many functions of society fall into that category. My hunch is that it's a lot of them. I don't have the math for that, though.
- 10y ago