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1.8M American truck drivers could lose their jobs to robots

16 points by Futurebot 10y ago

pedalpete 10y ago
This is definitely coming, and truckers need to be aware. Upskilling now is imperative. At the same time, it isn't just the truck drivers. Logistics is also changing and becoming automated, then you've got delivery drivers (I'll assume they are also considered in the same bucket as truck drivers), bus drivers etc. Self-driving cars also have a huge impact. It isn't just taxis/uber-drivers that are being replaced, there is the change to infrastructure. How do parking needs change? How about traffic police? I was thinking about this yesterday, and how do we think far enough ahead to prepare as a society, and benefit from these changes? On a side-note, I seriously question the stats from NPR's most common occupation. How can you have states where the most common job is Secretary? Is Software Engineer really the most common profession in any state?
- pkroll 10y ago
  Indeed, it appears there's a viable argument for "retail sales" as the most common job in 42 states. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-truck-driver-isnt-the-most-common-job-in-your-state-2015-02-12 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-truck-driver-isnt-the-mo...
astrodust 10y ago
This is an interesting sort of career path for people. A hundred years ago there was no such thing as a long-haul trucker, the only reliable way to get goods over vast distances was train if there was tracks or boat if there were navigable waterways. Through the 1950s trucking became a force to recon with, and these days with seemingly everyone moving to zero-inventory systems it requires a degree of flexibility that rail can't afford. Still, you have to wonder how many horse and buggy drivers were put out of business by long-haul truckers. A single motorized vehicle could do the work of twenty wagons which were probably the standard mode of transportation in many places until highways emerged. Self-driving is just the next step.
- edko 10y ago
  However, the effect this next step can have on the overall economy can be disastrous. Not only is truck driver the most common profession, with their unemployment creating hardships for millions of families, and the families of industries related to truck driving, but also the knock on effect that will have. Imagine all those families spending less, creating recession, lay-offs, and bankruptcies in every industry. It could be more disastrous than the housing crisis.
  - astrodust 10y ago
    It will have a pretty major impact on things, but then again, so did switching from wagons to diesel trucks. How many people making horse shoes and buggies went bankrupt? How many people were there that used to deal with the horses, with the carriages, with selling goods and services to people? The efficiencies gained by long-distance hauling being practical made entirely new industries possible. So long as this automated transport enables new business opportunities that require labour it will be a positive thing. If this is robotic trucks driving goods to robotic factories with products designed by robots, then we're screwed.
    - flukus 10y ago
      And how much social upheaval was there? Enough to kill off a good chunk of the working population.
force_reboot 10y ago
There is a glaring contradiction between the two mainstream narratives, one of which goes that we need working class jobs because not everyone is capable of middle class jobs, the other of which says there aren't enough people to fill working class jobs so we need immigration. There two narratives exist in almost every Western nation.
Shivetya 10y ago
I think robots will be the future in many industries but honestly self driving cars are no where near where they need to be. There are none on the road right now, yeah, none. You cannot trust a single one to be safe in conditions the average driver can drive in. Soon as it rains, snows, or such, these systems start to fail. Oh sure they brag up the internet but damn, they are doing the easiest driving there is. Throw a few plastic supermarket bags in front on your "self driving" car and you will find it isn't anything more than self tailgating. Really, why are these systems so big on tail gating when its not guaranteed you are tail gating another car with similar equipment? Finally, who is liable when a supposedly self driving car is told to speed? back to trucks, long haul might get it first but not unless roads are setup to accommodate them because bad weather driving is a lot further off than we suspect

16 points by Futurebot 10y ago

This is definitely coming, and truckers need to be aware. Upskilling now is imperative. At the same time, it isn't just the truck drivers. Logistics is also changing and becoming automated, then you've got delivery drivers (I'll assume they are also considered in the same bucket as truck drivers), bus drivers etc. Self-driving cars also have a huge impact. It isn't just taxis/uber-drivers that are being replaced, there is the change to infrastructure. How do parking needs change? How about traffic police? I was thinking about this yesterday, and how do we think far enough ahead to prepare as a society, and benefit from these changes? On a side-note, I seriously question the stats from NPR's most common occupation. How can you have states where the most common job is Secretary? Is Software Engineer really the most common profession in any state?

pkroll 10y ago
Indeed, it appears there's a viable argument for "retail sales" as the most common job in 42 states. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-truck-driver-isnt-the-most-common-job-in-your-state-2015-02-12 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-truck-driver-isnt-the-mo...

astrodust 10y ago

This is an interesting sort of career path for people. A hundred years ago there was no such thing as a long-haul trucker, the only reliable way to get goods over vast distances was train if there was tracks or boat if there were navigable waterways. Through the 1950s trucking became a force to recon with, and these days with seemingly everyone moving to zero-inventory systems it requires a degree of flexibility that rail can't afford. Still, you have to wonder how many horse and buggy drivers were put out of business by long-haul truckers. A single motorized vehicle could do the work of twenty wagons which were probably the standard mode of transportation in many places until highways emerged. Self-driving is just the next step.

edko 10y ago
However, the effect this next step can have on the overall economy can be disastrous. Not only is truck driver the most common profession, with their unemployment creating hardships for millions of families, and the families of industries related to truck driving, but also the knock on effect that will have. Imagine all those families spending less, creating recession, lay-offs, and bankruptcies in every industry. It could be more disastrous than the housing crisis.
- astrodust 10y ago
  It will have a pretty major impact on things, but then again, so did switching from wagons to diesel trucks. How many people making horse shoes and buggies went bankrupt? How many people were there that used to deal with the horses, with the carriages, with selling goods and services to people? The efficiencies gained by long-distance hauling being practical made entirely new industries possible. So long as this automated transport enables new business opportunities that require labour it will be a positive thing. If this is robotic trucks driving goods to robotic factories with products designed by robots, then we're screwed.
  - flukus 10y ago
    And how much social upheaval was there? Enough to kill off a good chunk of the working population.

force_reboot 10y ago

There is a glaring contradiction between the two mainstream narratives, one of which goes that we need working class jobs because not everyone is capable of middle class jobs, the other of which says there aren't enough people to fill working class jobs so we need immigration. There two narratives exist in almost every Western nation.

Shivetya 10y ago

I think robots will be the future in many industries but honestly self driving cars are no where near where they need to be. There are none on the road right now, yeah, none. You cannot trust a single one to be safe in conditions the average driver can drive in. Soon as it rains, snows, or such, these systems start to fail. Oh sure they brag up the internet but damn, they are doing the easiest driving there is. Throw a few plastic supermarket bags in front on your "self driving" car and you will find it isn't anything more than self tailgating. Really, why are these systems so big on tail gating when its not guaranteed you are tail gating another car with similar equipment? Finally, who is liable when a supposedly self driving car is told to speed? back to trucks, long haul might get it first but not unless roads are setup to accommodate them because bad weather driving is a lot further off than we suspect