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> When you think Tesla, you probably think electric car, or autonomous driving car, or Elon Musk. If you are an investor thinking in those terms, Tesla will pr

by wklauss 10y ago

> When you think Tesla, you probably think electric car, or autonomous driving car, or Elon Musk. If you are an investor thinking in those terms, Tesla will probably seem like a terrible company. Overvalued and unlikely to succeed once traditional car companies start taking EV seriously. Like you say, there are no fundamentals to support current valuation and there will never be. The only way to look at Tesla is to think about it on more broad terms. It is a car manufacturer, yes, but it also is a company that provides a long range EV support infrastructure (superchargers), the (soon-to-be) largest Li-ion battery manufacturer, a domestic energy storage provider, etc... With that perspective in mind, SolarCity fits right within the catalog of product and services. Tesla is an engineering company focusing the different applications of renewable energy and batteries. Cars just happen to be one that offers an attractive market to address now and a personal interest for Musk. And that, I think, it's more than just faith in Elon coming through. It is a measurable market, albeit uncertain and dependent on a lot of social transformation and full of regulatory hurdles.

dragontamer 10y ago
The largest Li-ion cell manufacturer remains Panasonic, the other owner of the Gigafactory. The "Batteries" that Tesla builds are just a bunch of Panasonic cells wired together plus some smarts to distribute the load. I don't see Panasonic remaining Tesla-exclusive for an extended period of time.
- erikpukinskis 10y ago
  The Tesla IP is just as important as the Panasonic IP though. It really is a joint venture. And Tesla, as the customer connection, has more leverage than Panasonic. They could cut Panasonic out of the next Gigafactory, but Panasonic can't start selling cars and home energy systems.
  - dragontamer 10y ago
    Panasonic owns half the Gigafactory. Tesla doesn't have any leverage here. Panasonic does what it wants. Tesla can decide to switch to another supplier, but Panasonic can just start selling to GM or Ford.
    - erikpukinskis 10y ago
      Of course, for Gigafactory 1 Tesla and Panasonic are married. I was talking about Gigafactory 2.
tcoppi 10y ago
On top of all that, there's the whole autonomous car thing that is going to completely shake up a lot of industries and hopefully produce massive profits as well. I don't think Tesla is poised to take as large of the pie here as some other players are a little further along, but they will be there in a big way too.

by wklauss 10y ago

dragontamer 10y ago

The largest Li-ion cell manufacturer remains Panasonic, the other owner of the Gigafactory. The "Batteries" that Tesla builds are just a bunch of Panasonic cells wired together plus some smarts to distribute the load. I don't see Panasonic remaining Tesla-exclusive for an extended period of time.

erikpukinskis 10y ago
The Tesla IP is just as important as the Panasonic IP though. It really is a joint venture. And Tesla, as the customer connection, has more leverage than Panasonic. They could cut Panasonic out of the next Gigafactory, but Panasonic can't start selling cars and home energy systems.
- dragontamer 10y ago
  Panasonic owns half the Gigafactory. Tesla doesn't have any leverage here. Panasonic does what it wants. Tesla can decide to switch to another supplier, but Panasonic can just start selling to GM or Ford.
  - erikpukinskis 10y ago
    Of course, for Gigafactory 1 Tesla and Panasonic are married. I was talking about Gigafactory 2.

tcoppi 10y ago

On top of all that, there's the whole autonomous car thing that is going to completely shake up a lot of industries and hopefully produce massive profits as well. I don't think Tesla is poised to take as large of the pie here as some other players are a little further along, but they will be there in a big way too.