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To give the other perspective, I think investors and writers fairly expect that Tesla should be able to give accurate predictions 90 days ahead of time. Tesla t

To give the other perspective, I think investors and writers fairly expect that Tesla should be able to give accurate predictions 90 days ahead of time. Tesla tells the market how many cars they will deliver to customers. And they get it wrong. It's not really about whether or not their reasons are legitimate. All of their reasons are within their control, vs say an outside shock. I don't know if they're being lazy or just saying "Yeah, but what does it tell us about your business acumen that you can't hit your own numbers?"

mikeash 10y ago
If the stories were "Tesla missed expectations" then I wouldn't bat an eye. But the stories I saw were, "Tesla sales are down, Tesla demand is falling off, Tesla is dying." Which is not remotely supported by the numbers, missed expectations or not.
- taf2 10y ago
  Not batting an eye is why the headlines where doom and gloom - they got your attention, mission accomplished.
- jusben1369 10y ago
  To be clear, they missed their sales goal. So sales were down. The challenge with Tesla is they do not have a good history of being open and honest about what his happening inside Tesla. So perhaps they missed their sales goals because it was all operational as they say. Or perhaps sales are softening. They have been reducing pricing from what I've heard. But either way, stop lamenting the press when it really starts and stops with Tesla doing what they say they will do or not. Every public company has the same parameters. why don't they just under promise and over achieve if they have uncertainty in exactly how well they control their production?
  - mikeash 10y ago
    It's not the "sales were down" part that I object to, it's the incorrect conclusions they draw from it. Tesla explicitly stated the reason for the missed deliveries. The published production and delivery numbers match the explanation. I suppose they could be lying, but I haven't seen anybody go so far as to accuse them of that here. I'm not lamenting the press for criticizing Tesla for missing expectations. I'm lamenting the press for taking a number that clearly indicated a slightly delayed production ramp and publishing articles talking about how the company is doomed because people aren't buying their product anymore.
  - dmode 10y ago
    Where did you see that Tesla missed their "sales goal" ? Can you point me to a source ? Tesla orders (which is sales) were up by 67% http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2570435980x0x903036/562D56A1-5426-4D79-8B99-3408D1B60226/Q2_16_Update_Letter_-_final.pdf http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/257043598... Look at the IR first page, paragraph 5. They missed their "delivery goals".
  - sqeaky 10y ago
    How does missing a goal much larger than your previous goal, but still making and selling more than ever equate to "sales were down". It looks like sales were up, but not as high as predicted.
    - mikeash 10y ago
      Sales were down from the previous quarter, which in turn was down from the quarter before that. If you look at the big picture, that fact is misleading because it doesn't account for cars in transit, but "sales were down" is true on its own.
  - Fordrus 10y ago
    >why don't they just under promise and over achieve I can answer this one! Because when you underpromise, you are undervalued, and if you are undervalued, then you often won't receive needed investment/trust/means/etc. Meaning that while underpromising and overdelivering is a GREAT plan for an individual most of the time, if you do it habitually as a company, you can wedge yourself into a situation where, for example, your product is THE BEST, but you've underpromised enough that you only get 15 million bucks to hire new engineers, buy up hardware/cloud virtualization space, etc., and that isn't enough - you run out of money early and go broke! Where your competitor, who overpromised, got 30 million in investment and while their product wasn't intially as good as yours, they invest time and money into it, and then they just buy you and your team at a fire-sale price when you go broke. The market is inept at these optimization functions overall, but it is still tuned to TRY and get them right- to take promises, expected performance, indicators, and all that and rough out a risk vs. reward equation and then plug funds into it. Underpromising and overdelivering is a method by which you can sometimes 'hack' the power of the market to 'price' your efforts, but it can backfire hilariously if you use it in the wrong space, against the wrong opponents.
  - sandworm101 10y ago
    >> Every public company has the same parameters. why don't they just under promise and over achieve Because that is illegal. You cannot just pump out bad numbers then surprise the market. Those bad numbers are a lie. Deliberately lowering expectations, driving down stocks, is the first step of an insider trading fiasco. A company that cannot properly keep shareholders informed is an unpredictable company. Maybe that is tesla. But deliberately keeping shareholders in the dark is criminal.
  - _ph_ 10y ago
    They did not miss their sales goal, but their delivery goal. Tesla cars are sold when they are produced, but they only book them, if they are delivered. Which takes time, as the car has to be physically moved. If they are moved outside of the US, several weeks of transport times add to it.

mikeash 10y ago

If the stories were "Tesla missed expectations" then I wouldn't bat an eye. But the stories I saw were, "Tesla sales are down, Tesla demand is falling off, Tesla is dying." Which is not remotely supported by the numbers, missed expectations or not.

taf2 10y ago
Not batting an eye is why the headlines where doom and gloom - they got your attention, mission accomplished.
jusben1369 10y ago
To be clear, they missed their sales goal. So sales were down. The challenge with Tesla is they do not have a good history of being open and honest about what his happening inside Tesla. So perhaps they missed their sales goals because it was all operational as they say. Or perhaps sales are softening. They have been reducing pricing from what I've heard. But either way, stop lamenting the press when it really starts and stops with Tesla doing what they say they will do or not. Every public company has the same parameters. why don't they just under promise and over achieve if they have uncertainty in exactly how well they control their production?
- mikeash 10y ago
  It's not the "sales were down" part that I object to, it's the incorrect conclusions they draw from it. Tesla explicitly stated the reason for the missed deliveries. The published production and delivery numbers match the explanation. I suppose they could be lying, but I haven't seen anybody go so far as to accuse them of that here. I'm not lamenting the press for criticizing Tesla for missing expectations. I'm lamenting the press for taking a number that clearly indicated a slightly delayed production ramp and publishing articles talking about how the company is doomed because people aren't buying their product anymore.
- dmode 10y ago
  Where did you see that Tesla missed their "sales goal" ? Can you point me to a source ? Tesla orders (which is sales) were up by 67% http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2570435980x0x903036/562D56A1-5426-4D79-8B99-3408D1B60226/Q2_16_Update_Letter_-_final.pdf http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/257043598... Look at the IR first page, paragraph 5. They missed their "delivery goals".
- sqeaky 10y ago
  How does missing a goal much larger than your previous goal, but still making and selling more than ever equate to "sales were down". It looks like sales were up, but not as high as predicted.
  - mikeash 10y ago
    Sales were down from the previous quarter, which in turn was down from the quarter before that. If you look at the big picture, that fact is misleading because it doesn't account for cars in transit, but "sales were down" is true on its own.
- Fordrus 10y ago
  >why don't they just under promise and over achieve I can answer this one! Because when you underpromise, you are undervalued, and if you are undervalued, then you often won't receive needed investment/trust/means/etc. Meaning that while underpromising and overdelivering is a GREAT plan for an individual most of the time, if you do it habitually as a company, you can wedge yourself into a situation where, for example, your product is THE BEST, but you've underpromised enough that you only get 15 million bucks to hire new engineers, buy up hardware/cloud virtualization space, etc., and that isn't enough - you run out of money early and go broke! Where your competitor, who overpromised, got 30 million in investment and while their product wasn't intially as good as yours, they invest time and money into it, and then they just buy you and your team at a fire-sale price when you go broke. The market is inept at these optimization functions overall, but it is still tuned to TRY and get them right- to take promises, expected performance, indicators, and all that and rough out a risk vs. reward equation and then plug funds into it. Underpromising and overdelivering is a method by which you can sometimes 'hack' the power of the market to 'price' your efforts, but it can backfire hilariously if you use it in the wrong space, against the wrong opponents.
- sandworm101 10y ago
  >> Every public company has the same parameters. why don't they just under promise and over achieve Because that is illegal. You cannot just pump out bad numbers then surprise the market. Those bad numbers are a lie. Deliberately lowering expectations, driving down stocks, is the first step of an insider trading fiasco. A company that cannot properly keep shareholders informed is an unpredictable company. Maybe that is tesla. But deliberately keeping shareholders in the dark is criminal.
- _ph_ 10y ago
  They did not miss their sales goal, but their delivery goal. Tesla cars are sold when they are produced, but they only book them, if they are delivered. Which takes time, as the car has to be physically moved. If they are moved outside of the US, several weeks of transport times add to it.