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I don't have a problem with people trying to understand the quarter-by-quarter performance of a company. That data is legally required to be published by the SE

by tcoppi 10y ago

I don't have a problem with people trying to understand the quarter-by-quarter performance of a company. That data is legally required to be published by the SEC for a reason. In Tesla's case, so much of their value is discounted into the future, and if the company was purely valued on quarterly results, would not be worth very much at all. Obviously a lot of the investing world disagrees with that and chooses to value Tesla a bit more highly based on the investment they are undertaking and demand they have demonstrated. Their stock is modestly up today after these results and news of the solarcity merger(also reported as disastrous in the media). Their quarterly results would generally be accepted by most methods of valuing companies as disastrous, and is being reported like so by most of the financial media. Maybe the shorts will win out eventually, but lots of people seem to be willing to finance Tesla despite their constant fundraising, unprofitably, and missed expectations. I wonder if the reasons might not be reflected in their 10-qs?

_ph_ 10y ago
The difference between produced and delivered vehicles points to why quarterly numbers have to be taken with a huge grain of salt. Did you miss numbers because you had a bad quarter, or did you miss numbers because some sales slip by a week or two? The first might be meaningful, but the second usually is not - quite the contrary, for the overall business its often better to slip a few weeks, than to artificially "make" the quarter numbers.
- mikeash 10y ago
  They explicitly stated that the difference between production and delivery was due to a sudden production increase near the end of the quarter resulting in many more cars still in transit to their buyers. They had about 2,500 more cars in transit at the end of Q2 than at the end of Q1. They were producing about 1,000 more cars per week at the end of Q2 than at the end of Q1. If it takes their cars an average of 2.5 weeks to be delivered from the factory (which is a reasonable number) then everything lines up. I don't see any need for a grain of salt or thinking it's mysterious.
  - _ph_ 10y ago
    Sorry, if I was not clear - in the Tesla case its obvious that the "missed" numbers are the cars still in transit. But most media reports about Tesla do not seem to take this under considerations. So, yes, Tesla is a bit late, which isn't good news, but neither especially bad news, but I have seen media reports where people make "Tesla can't sell all the cars they make" out of it.
    - mikeash 10y ago
      Oh, ok, sounds like we're in agreement then. Thank you for clarifying for me.

by tcoppi 10y ago

_ph_ 10y ago

The difference between produced and delivered vehicles points to why quarterly numbers have to be taken with a huge grain of salt. Did you miss numbers because you had a bad quarter, or did you miss numbers because some sales slip by a week or two? The first might be meaningful, but the second usually is not - quite the contrary, for the overall business its often better to slip a few weeks, than to artificially "make" the quarter numbers.

mikeash 10y ago
They explicitly stated that the difference between production and delivery was due to a sudden production increase near the end of the quarter resulting in many more cars still in transit to their buyers. They had about 2,500 more cars in transit at the end of Q2 than at the end of Q1. They were producing about 1,000 more cars per week at the end of Q2 than at the end of Q1. If it takes their cars an average of 2.5 weeks to be delivered from the factory (which is a reasonable number) then everything lines up. I don't see any need for a grain of salt or thinking it's mysterious.
- _ph_ 10y ago
  Sorry, if I was not clear - in the Tesla case its obvious that the "missed" numbers are the cars still in transit. But most media reports about Tesla do not seem to take this under considerations. So, yes, Tesla is a bit late, which isn't good news, but neither especially bad news, but I have seen media reports where people make "Tesla can't sell all the cars they make" out of it.
  - mikeash 10y ago
    Oh, ok, sounds like we're in agreement then. Thank you for clarifying for me.