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From the article: > "...Moore’s Law, which states that the number of transistors that can be squeezed onto a semiconductor chip of a given size doubles roughly
by erdevs 10y ago
From the article:
> "...Moore’s Law, which states that the number of transistors that can be squeezed onto a semiconductor chip of a given size doubles roughly every two years, has held true since the mid 1960s..."
I thought it was the case that Moore's "Law" hasn't held up since ~2012.
I believe Intel and others have stated that as of 2012 or so, with 22nm processes, transistor density now doubles every ~2.5 years and is likely to slow further within 5 years without more fundamental breakthroughs.
The related trend that processor clock speeds doubled every 1.5-2 years-- which is commonly mistaken as Moore's Law in lay press but is actually more related to Dennard Scaling, Koomey's Law and historical statements by Intel-- had ceased to hold as of the late Aughts as well, I believe.
Memsistors have been a promise for some time. I wonder how we will make the leap from current dense-transistor IC tech and processes to anything new, given the huge infrastructure investments in fabs, quality control processes, etc. It seems it will be difficult to scale out a new technology, whatever it is, and get it price-competitive with existing transistor-dense IC technology. Perhaps I misunderstand here though, and would be interested in thoughts from those with greater expertise in the field.
- VT_Drew 10y ago>I thought it was the case that Moore's "Law" hasn't held up since ~2012. I thought it was before that, like 1999. I pretty sure I had an Intel Pentium III 2 GHz processor in 99. The computer I am using to type this comment is 2.5 GHz. More's law is long dead, we aren't going to see 12 GHz machines in the next 6 years.
- km3k 10y agoMoore's Law has nothing to do with clock speed.
- zerohp 10y agoAside from the obvious problems in your comparison. Moore's Law says nothing about frequency. The "rule" that changed around 2006 was Dennard scaling. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennard_scaling#Breakdown_of_Dennard_scaling_around_2006 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennard_scaling#Breakdown_of_D...
- grkvlt 10y agoAnd the 2.5GHz chip you are using now n years later has (very) approximately 2^n more transistors - think about the increase in the number of cores, the large number of different execution units, the increased width of the data busses, that vast amount of on-die cache and so on. These all increase the transistor count, but feature size is also getting smaller, allowing the total transistor density to increase in line with Moore's law.