What i as trying to do was break down that risk into the major constituents (as i see them), Chinese regulatory change being one of them. As I pointed out, like

What i as trying to do was break down that risk into the major constituents (as i see them), Chinese regulatory change being one of them. As I pointed out, likely a large fraction of the chinese cash is already illegal. I don't know chinese politics well enough to know the likelihood or impact of a change. However just from general corrupt country historical knowledge I would guess there are a lot of payoffs to get the money out and who wants to stop that? Oil price is an interesting point. Of course the question becomes what would the price of oil do to foreign investment? Not much i'd guess. If oil goes down the CAD will become cheaper increasing investment. Up and investment may slow but, again, if you're a chinese millionaire looking to get your cash to a safe haven do you actually care how big the house is you are buying? You are just moving the say 2mil out of china. You just care that it keeps the original value.