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"And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains." This is false. China is not the sole or important supplier
by jomamaxx 10y ago
"And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains."
This is false. China is not the sole or important supplier of most things.
Vietname, India etc. are becoming capable of providing labour and supply chain.
A 10% tariff would be fair.
Besides, something needs to be done to balance trade.
Right now China is cheating by claiming they are open, whey they are not.
The West should simply implement tit-for-tat policies.
- ittekimasu 10y agoVietnam/Thailand are already in the supply chain (where do you think all your cameras/hard disks come from ?). India barely has a manufacturing sector.
- jomamaxx 10y agoOf course. But supply/demand economics means as wages/issues rise in China (i.e. trade war) the rest of Asia, which is rising quickly, picks up the slack. China has scale, and the right value chains for certain things. But ultimately they are commodities. It's that hard to build simple factories and provide reliable electricity and cheap workers. Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Vietnam etc. - there's a lot of people there waiting to pick up the slack. The US does not import a lot of meaningful things from China. China imports a lot of critical goods from the West, particularly Germany. Also - the trade balance is very lopsided. A 'trade war' with China would be very painful for China, but the West would hardly skip a beat. A) Consumer prices would rise a little bit. B) Some plants (smart factories) would open in the US C) Mexico would boon, and so would other areas in Asia. In the long run, if other places pick up the slack, it would permanently damage China's competitive advantages - whereas Western nations would do just fine, save a few German tool makers.