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Philadelphia 76ers to beat the Chicago Bulls a few years ago in the NBA playoffs. Payout was something like 11-1 and our model had implied probability at someth
by GreenPlastic 10y ago
Philadelphia 76ers to beat the Chicago Bulls a few years ago in the NBA playoffs. Payout was something like 11-1 and our model had implied probability at something like 45% for Philadelphia.
Made like 50k.
- adt2bt 10y agoSounds to me like this wasn't your only bet of the year. How long have you been predicting NBA games (or other sports)?
- the_watcher 10y agoI won something like $1500 on the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl 2 years ago, but I don't consider gambling an investment (mentally, I treat it as purchasing entertainment rather than something with the chance of panning out). Also, $400 of that came from hitting the second quarter and final score squares.
- korias 10y agoSounds like your model assigned a high probability to Derrick Rose tearing his ACL :)
- GreenPlastic 10y agoIf I remember correctly, it was a lockout shortened season with multiple back to back to backs, Thibs had a habit of playing his players too many minutes, and Rose was gimpy going in. The real reason our model really liked Philly because they were one of the top teams in eFG% on defense, defReb% and off TOV%. Basically, they were dominant in several of the 4 factors that aren't obvious to most casual observers.