5 ms·

Tell them: Look, you can play around with your currency in whatever way you want. But if the trade balance is not balanced, we charge a 10% import tax. Per day.

by tiatia 10y ago

Tell them: Look, you can play around with your currency in whatever way you want. But if the trade balance is not balanced, we charge a 10% import tax. Per day. Cumulative. I think there are many countries that can produce cheap shoes, clothes and electronics. By now all this stuff can already be manufactured in the US again due to automation and robotics (see Adidas producing shoes in Germany AGAIN). This would be a minor problem for the US but a big problem for China, Germany and Japan. By the way, I live in China.

gnaritas 10y ago
> Tell them: Look, you can play around with your currency in whatever way you want. But if the trade balance is not balanced, we charge a 10% import tax. Per day. Cumulative. Yea, that's not how the world works; the President isn't a CEO.
morgante 10y ago
And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains. Sorry, but complex problems don't have simple answers. Trump can't unilaterally force China to stop its protectionism, at least not without inflicting significant hurt on the American economy. How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?
- giardini 10y ago
  "And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains." WHAT supply chain? There is NO supply chain anymore. JIT (Just-In-Time) inventory has been replaced by BLTN (Better-Late-Than-Never) and AGNM (Ain't-Got-No-More) inventory. Went to a large box store on the weekend. They had empty containers marked "Display" on the shelves. Two different employees explained that I should put empty containers for the desired items in my cart and, upon checking out, they would retrieve a full container of each item "from the back". Both assured me all displayed items were available. Got my display containers and proceeded to check out. Was informed that two of three displayed items were not available. I suggested to the clerk "So now you'll take these two items off display?" He replied "No, they'll probably be back in stock next week." I left the store w/o purchasing anything and they'll never see me again. We may be in a recession right now because we can't buy quality goods AT ALL! I've bought five new fingernail clippers in the last six months and, for God's sake, they won't cut my nails! They're all made in China. Many, if not most Chinese goods, especially machine tools, remain as they were 14 years ago: low quality and every item different with no standardization. And they've driven many good US manufacturers out of business. Why? Because workers buy shitty tools for one-time use, bill the customer for the work and for the tools and then throw away the tools when they're done. Of course no one's considering the external factors here: cost of shitty tools in poor workmanship, longer production times and accidents. "How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?" If it convinces American manufacturers to produce quality products then it's great news.
  - losteric 10y ago
    Your anecdotes are not data.
    - gnaritas 10y ago
      They're anecdata, the best kind of data for those with an agenda or those without brains.
    - giardini 10y ago
      The evidence is far more than anecdotal. Anyone who is an active tool user could provide more - ask your local mechanic. The experience I describe is almost universal and transcends the term "anecdodal". Here's some bedside reading: 'What’s in a tool? A case for Made in USA': http://hackaday.com/2016/01/18/whats-in-a-tool-a-case-for-made-in-usa/ http://hackaday.com/2016/01/18/whats-in-a-tool-a-case-for-ma... Discussion of the same: https://build.slashdot.org/story/16/01/18/213236/whats-in-a-tool-a-case-for-made-in-the-usa https://build.slashdot.org/story/16/01/18/213236/whats-in-a-... "China & The Decline In Quality (And Soon In Profits)": http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-18/china-decline-quality-and-soon-profits http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-18/china-decline-quali... And my favorite, just for fun: "Chinese Factory Worker Can't Believe The Shit He Makes For Americans": http://www.theonion.com/article/chinese-factory-worker-cant-believe-the-shit-he-ma-1343 http://www.theonion.com/article/chinese-factory-worker-cant-...
      - nl 10y ago
        I'm not from the US or China. I think that outside the US, the reputation of US-made good has never been particularly strong. We see US cars, and compare them to Japanese cars and see mostly failings. So far as Chinese goods go, I have no particular knowledge of wrenches. However, I'd note that (Chinese made) Apple products are generally of pretty good quality. I'd also point out that the ZeroHedge article doesn't really make a strong case that quality is decreasing at all. And you realize the Onion is a parody, right?
        giardini 10y ago
- trevelyan 10y ago
  The United States is already dealing with economic problems caused by the Chinese trade deficit, which siphons almost as much demand from the economy every year as Obama's 2008 stimulus added in a one-time shot. So it is an interesting question and certainly not one-sided.... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/protectionism-geopolitical-problems-by-barry-eichengreen-2016-07 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/protectionism-g... A trade war would theoretically cause a deadweight loss in global GDP, but as long as the US is not at full employment it is likely losses would end up distributed almost entirely on the Chinese side. Domestic losses would only take place after the return to full employment. Restructuring costs would also be imposed disproportionately on China because they'd be the ones dealing with insufficient demand. Sure, a better alternative from a conventional economic perspective would be having the United States ramp up spending. The problem is that just printing more USD to enable this causes its own set of problems given that the USD is the world's reserve currency. Having the government take on additional interest-bearing debt avoids this problem, but does not seem particularly attractive when the Chinese are the ones who will end up collecting interest on the loan. Political outcomes? My sense is that we'd see an upsurge in nationalism in China, perhaps more aggression in the South China Seas, but also a rapid collapse in the Chinese economy that would make coming to terms with the trade deficit a political priority. And is it really crazy for the West to demand a level playing field in exchange for its willingness to keep China from economic collapse?
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    > and having the government take on additional interest-bearing debt instead does not seem particularly attractive when the Chinese are the ones who will end up collecting interest on the loan. But the Chinese aren't the ones that will end up collecting interest on additional US debt; while they are the biggest current foreign holder of US debt, their total holdings are dropping; they not only aren't the biggest purchaser of new US debt, they aren't even a net purchaser of US debt. (And they are only the biggest foreign holder, most US federal debt is owed to...entities within the US; non-federal US entities hold 4 times as much US debt as China does.)
    - trevelyan 10y ago
- jomamaxx 10y ago
  "And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains." This is false. China is not the sole or important supplier of most things. Vietname, India etc. are becoming capable of providing labour and supply chain. A 10% tariff would be fair. Besides, something needs to be done to balance trade. Right now China is cheating by claiming they are open, whey they are not. The West should simply implement tit-for-tat policies.
  - ittekimasu 10y ago
    Vietnam/Thailand are already in the supply chain (where do you think all your cameras/hard disks come from ?). India barely has a manufacturing sector.
    - jomamaxx 10y ago
      Of course. But supply/demand economics means as wages/issues rise in China (i.e. trade war) the rest of Asia, which is rising quickly, picks up the slack. China has scale, and the right value chains for certain things. But ultimately they are commodities. It's that hard to build simple factories and provide reliable electricity and cheap workers. Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Vietnam etc. - there's a lot of people there waiting to pick up the slack. The US does not import a lot of meaningful things from China. China imports a lot of critical goods from the West, particularly Germany. Also - the trade balance is very lopsided. A 'trade war' with China would be very painful for China, but the West would hardly skip a beat. A) Consumer prices would rise a little bit. B) Some plants (smart factories) would open in the US C) Mexico would boon, and so would other areas in Asia. In the long run, if other places pick up the slack, it would permanently damage China's competitive advantages - whereas Western nations would do just fine, save a few German tool makers.
- ittekimasu 10y ago
  US economy grew only by 1.3% (as opposed to the expected 2.3%); the news sent XAU and JPY soaring. The silver cloud was that the consumer spending still looked decent; such tariffs without massive structural changes to the US manufacturing will come with a recession. People don't understand why people manufacture in China - it's less about wages now, and more about logistics. Considering the global decline in demand, it's unlikely US (or any others in S. Asia / Africa) will be able to repeat the China/Asian Tiger story on such a mass scale.
android521 10y ago
I always wonder who are the idiotic supporters of trump and what were they thing? Now I found one. So trump raises 10% import tax, how will that affect prices and the economy. You are such a genius. The world is a dangerous place because of people like you with half brains.
- tiatia 10y ago
  >So trump raises 10% import tax This was just an example. But it does not matter if 1% or 10%. It is per day. Cumulative. Please look up the word if you don't understand it. It is cumulative until the trade balance is balanced again.
  - gnaritas 10y ago
    You're only proving his point.
rpgmaker 10y ago
There is a massive amount of US wealth landlocked in China, there's no way a US president is going to risk having China appropriate all that wealth a la Castro. If you really believe Trump will go through with his childish bravado then I feel sorry for you and for all his voters but I get why it has made him popular. When it comes to China it's too late to do anything too drastic to reverse this situation and given the risks involved there probably isn't much will to rock the boat either.
- xapata 10y ago
  Another way to look at it: if you think Trump won't go through with his insanities, you're not scared enough. One example: Trump said he would refuse to honor US debts, just as he has successfully refused to honor his own debts so many times. Even the smallest credible threat of devaluing US Treasury bonds would be an economic disaster.

by tiatia 10y ago

gnaritas 10y ago

> Tell them: Look, you can play around with your currency in whatever way you want. But if the trade balance is not balanced, we charge a 10% import tax. Per day. Cumulative. Yea, that's not how the world works; the President isn't a CEO.

morgante 10y ago

And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains. Sorry, but complex problems don't have simple answers. Trump can't unilaterally force China to stop its protectionism, at least not without inflicting significant hurt on the American economy. How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?

giardini 10y ago
"And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains." WHAT supply chain? There is NO supply chain anymore. JIT (Just-In-Time) inventory has been replaced by BLTN (Better-Late-Than-Never) and AGNM (Ain't-Got-No-More) inventory. Went to a large box store on the weekend. They had empty containers marked "Display" on the shelves. Two different employees explained that I should put empty containers for the desired items in my cart and, upon checking out, they would retrieve a full container of each item "from the back". Both assured me all displayed items were available. Got my display containers and proceeded to check out. Was informed that two of three displayed items were not available. I suggested to the clerk "So now you'll take these two items off display?" He replied "No, they'll probably be back in stock next week." I left the store w/o purchasing anything and they'll never see me again. We may be in a recession right now because we can't buy quality goods AT ALL! I've bought five new fingernail clippers in the last six months and, for God's sake, they won't cut my nails! They're all made in China. Many, if not most Chinese goods, especially machine tools, remain as they were 14 years ago: low quality and every item different with no standardization. And they've driven many good US manufacturers out of business. Why? Because workers buy shitty tools for one-time use, bill the customer for the work and for the tools and then throw away the tools when they're done. Of course no one's considering the external factors here: cost of shitty tools in poor workmanship, longer production times and accidents. "How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?" If it convinces American manufacturers to produce quality products then it's great news.
- losteric 10y ago
  Your anecdotes are not data.
  - gnaritas 10y ago
    They're anecdata, the best kind of data for those with an agenda or those without brains.
  - giardini 10y ago
    The evidence is far more than anecdotal. Anyone who is an active tool user could provide more - ask your local mechanic. The experience I describe is almost universal and transcends the term "anecdodal". Here's some bedside reading: 'What’s in a tool? A case for Made in USA': http://hackaday.com/2016/01/18/whats-in-a-tool-a-case-for-made-in-usa/ http://hackaday.com/2016/01/18/whats-in-a-tool-a-case-for-ma... Discussion of the same: https://build.slashdot.org/story/16/01/18/213236/whats-in-a-tool-a-case-for-made-in-the-usa https://build.slashdot.org/story/16/01/18/213236/whats-in-a-... "China & The Decline In Quality (And Soon In Profits)": http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-18/china-decline-quality-and-soon-profits http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-18/china-decline-quali... And my favorite, just for fun: "Chinese Factory Worker Can't Believe The Shit He Makes For Americans": http://www.theonion.com/article/chinese-factory-worker-cant-believe-the-shit-he-ma-1343 http://www.theonion.com/article/chinese-factory-worker-cant-...
    - nl 10y ago
      I'm not from the US or China. I think that outside the US, the reputation of US-made good has never been particularly strong. We see US cars, and compare them to Japanese cars and see mostly failings. So far as Chinese goods go, I have no particular knowledge of wrenches. However, I'd note that (Chinese made) Apple products are generally of pretty good quality. I'd also point out that the ZeroHedge article doesn't really make a strong case that quality is decreasing at all. And you realize the Onion is a parody, right?
      - giardini 10y ago
trevelyan 10y ago
The United States is already dealing with economic problems caused by the Chinese trade deficit, which siphons almost as much demand from the economy every year as Obama's 2008 stimulus added in a one-time shot. So it is an interesting question and certainly not one-sided.... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/protectionism-geopolitical-problems-by-barry-eichengreen-2016-07 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/protectionism-g... A trade war would theoretically cause a deadweight loss in global GDP, but as long as the US is not at full employment it is likely losses would end up distributed almost entirely on the Chinese side. Domestic losses would only take place after the return to full employment. Restructuring costs would also be imposed disproportionately on China because they'd be the ones dealing with insufficient demand. Sure, a better alternative from a conventional economic perspective would be having the United States ramp up spending. The problem is that just printing more USD to enable this causes its own set of problems given that the USD is the world's reserve currency. Having the government take on additional interest-bearing debt avoids this problem, but does not seem particularly attractive when the Chinese are the ones who will end up collecting interest on the loan. Political outcomes? My sense is that we'd see an upsurge in nationalism in China, perhaps more aggression in the South China Seas, but also a rapid collapse in the Chinese economy that would make coming to terms with the trade deficit a political priority. And is it really crazy for the West to demand a level playing field in exchange for its willingness to keep China from economic collapse?
- dragonwriter 10y ago
  > and having the government take on additional interest-bearing debt instead does not seem particularly attractive when the Chinese are the ones who will end up collecting interest on the loan. But the Chinese aren't the ones that will end up collecting interest on additional US debt; while they are the biggest current foreign holder of US debt, their total holdings are dropping; they not only aren't the biggest purchaser of new US debt, they aren't even a net purchaser of US debt. (And they are only the biggest foreign holder, most US federal debt is owed to...entities within the US; non-federal US entities hold 4 times as much US debt as China does.)
  - trevelyan 10y ago
jomamaxx 10y ago
"And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains." This is false. China is not the sole or important supplier of most things. Vietname, India etc. are becoming capable of providing labour and supply chain. A 10% tariff would be fair. Besides, something needs to be done to balance trade. Right now China is cheating by claiming they are open, whey they are not. The West should simply implement tit-for-tat policies.
- ittekimasu 10y ago
  Vietnam/Thailand are already in the supply chain (where do you think all your cameras/hard disks come from ?). India barely has a manufacturing sector.
  - jomamaxx 10y ago
    Of course. But supply/demand economics means as wages/issues rise in China (i.e. trade war) the rest of Asia, which is rising quickly, picks up the slack. China has scale, and the right value chains for certain things. But ultimately they are commodities. It's that hard to build simple factories and provide reliable electricity and cheap workers. Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Vietnam etc. - there's a lot of people there waiting to pick up the slack. The US does not import a lot of meaningful things from China. China imports a lot of critical goods from the West, particularly Germany. Also - the trade balance is very lopsided. A 'trade war' with China would be very painful for China, but the West would hardly skip a beat. A) Consumer prices would rise a little bit. B) Some plants (smart factories) would open in the US C) Mexico would boon, and so would other areas in Asia. In the long run, if other places pick up the slack, it would permanently damage China's competitive advantages - whereas Western nations would do just fine, save a few German tool makers.
ittekimasu 10y ago
US economy grew only by 1.3% (as opposed to the expected 2.3%); the news sent XAU and JPY soaring. The silver cloud was that the consumer spending still looked decent; such tariffs without massive structural changes to the US manufacturing will come with a recession. People don't understand why people manufacture in China - it's less about wages now, and more about logistics. Considering the global decline in demand, it's unlikely US (or any others in S. Asia / Africa) will be able to repeat the China/Asian Tiger story on such a mass scale.

android521 10y ago

I always wonder who are the idiotic supporters of trump and what were they thing? Now I found one. So trump raises 10% import tax, how will that affect prices and the economy. You are such a genius. The world is a dangerous place because of people like you with half brains.

tiatia 10y ago
>So trump raises 10% import tax This was just an example. But it does not matter if 1% or 10%. It is per day. Cumulative. Please look up the word if you don't understand it. It is cumulative until the trade balance is balanced again.
- gnaritas 10y ago
  You're only proving his point.

rpgmaker 10y ago

There is a massive amount of US wealth landlocked in China, there's no way a US president is going to risk having China appropriate all that wealth a la Castro. If you really believe Trump will go through with his childish bravado then I feel sorry for you and for all his voters but I get why it has made him popular. When it comes to China it's too late to do anything too drastic to reverse this situation and given the risks involved there probably isn't much will to rock the boat either.

xapata 10y ago
Another way to look at it: if you think Trump won't go through with his insanities, you're not scared enough. One example: Trump said he would refuse to honor US debts, just as he has successfully refused to honor his own debts so many times. Even the smallest credible threat of devaluing US Treasury bonds would be an economic disaster.