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He does not seem to state any reasons he thinks "Winter is Coming". The earnings of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Google tell a different story than his.

coderholic 10y ago
He does: > Vulnerability is here. Falling valuations. Layoffs. Shifting geography. He also isn't saying the winter is coming, but that things might be changing and we should be prepared if they do > To reiterate, I’m suggesting preparing to make good decisions if the rules change drastically.
- Decade 10y ago
  > Shifting geography. First thing I thought of with that was: Earthquakes. All these famous tech companies are built in an earthquake zone. Amazon has the further misfortune of being in an area without a history of preparing for the earthquake. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-... Discussed https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthqu... and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9878160 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9878160 But I think geography could be referring to the next disruptive technology, or how the existing tech centers are strangling their young and forcing new tech companies to move where it’s more affordable. Different types of geography.
jmcgough 10y ago
He never does state that, he says "not saying winter is coming". I.e., regardless of what the future has in store, put yourself in a favorable position.
uptown 10y ago
Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Google also have established business models in-place. Many younger companies are burning investment dollars in the hopes of turning profitable or being acquired.
dmbaggett 10y ago
That's a counter-indicator for the success of startups. We saw the same thing in the game industry in the late 90s: the consolidation of power into a few mega-players means the small fry all get wiped out or bought for scrap.
mgkimsal 10y ago
> Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Google We don't all work for these 4 companies. There's lots of fluctuations in oil/energy, car makers are predicting slow downs (which may have bigger implications in the near future), Brexit effects are still being felt and worked out, and our own Fed doesn't seem confident enough in the near term economy to commit to raising interest rates in the near future.
- yompers888 10y ago
  I believe Ford actually released very disappointing figures in the past few days, so you can move that from the 'speculative' column to 'concrete'.
vonmoltke 10y ago
I interpreted the ASOIAF reference to mean what it means in the books: it is a question of when, not if, Winter is coming and you'd best have a plan in place for whenever that may be.

coderholic 10y ago

He does: > Vulnerability is here. Falling valuations. Layoffs. Shifting geography. He also isn't saying the winter is coming, but that things might be changing and we should be prepared if they do > To reiterate, I’m suggesting preparing to make good decisions if the rules change drastically.

Decade 10y ago
> Shifting geography. First thing I thought of with that was: Earthquakes. All these famous tech companies are built in an earthquake zone. Amazon has the further misfortune of being in an area without a history of preparing for the earthquake. http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-... Discussed https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthquake_experts_ask_us_anything_about/ https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/3da1mh/we_are_earthqu... and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9878160 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9878160 But I think geography could be referring to the next disruptive technology, or how the existing tech centers are strangling their young and forcing new tech companies to move where it’s more affordable. Different types of geography.

jmcgough 10y ago

He never does state that, he says "not saying winter is coming". I.e., regardless of what the future has in store, put yourself in a favorable position.

uptown 10y ago

Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Google also have established business models in-place. Many younger companies are burning investment dollars in the hopes of turning profitable or being acquired.

dmbaggett 10y ago

That's a counter-indicator for the success of startups. We saw the same thing in the game industry in the late 90s: the consolidation of power into a few mega-players means the small fry all get wiped out or bought for scrap.

mgkimsal 10y ago

> Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Google We don't all work for these 4 companies. There's lots of fluctuations in oil/energy, car makers are predicting slow downs (which may have bigger implications in the near future), Brexit effects are still being felt and worked out, and our own Fed doesn't seem confident enough in the near term economy to commit to raising interest rates in the near future.

yompers888 10y ago
I believe Ford actually released very disappointing figures in the past few days, so you can move that from the 'speculative' column to 'concrete'.

vonmoltke 10y ago

I interpreted the ASOIAF reference to mean what it means in the books: it is a question of when, not if, Winter is coming and you'd best have a plan in place for whenever that may be.