6 ms·

From my perspective, it's pretty clear that "Delivery by drone" is going to happen. It might not be this year, or next year, or even in the next 5-10 years, but

From my perspective, it's pretty clear that "Delivery by drone" is going to happen. It might not be this year, or next year, or even in the next 5-10 years, but eventually it's going to happen. I think that if the FAA doesn't keep up with the pace that other countries are setting (in terms of regulation, laws, and rules surrounding out-of-sight drone usage), then eventually they will be pressured to rush some solutions which will probably have some bad consequences.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
Someone1234 10y ago
From my perspective I think it is pretty clear that drone delivery is never going to happen and is just a fad. Firstly, let me just say, technologically drone delivery could definitely happen. There's no technical reason why not. But if we look at the history of freight it has always been about efficiency, and new competitors have always competed by finding ways of being cheaper. We already have less technical "drone delivery," it is called a courier, but outside of New York and a handful of other places they're niche. Nobody wants to pay to deliver just a single package, it is too expensive. Even services like "next day delivery" work on the principle of economy. You have trucks which are on other deliveries (economical ones) just drop off the "next day" packages between them. That makes these "unnaturally cheap." What do drones offer that a human courier doesn't? It cannot deliver inside most office buildings, you're still paying for fuel/maintenance/development/lost drones/etc. It likely has limited capacity. Plus let's look at competing technology coming up: Automated vehicles. How long until a delivery van can drive itself to your home, and then send you a text to meet it outside? That technology is coming with or without drone development, and solves some of a drone's inherent issues (poor capacity, lower maintenance, better economy, etc). I really think drones for deliveries won't go anywhere. It is just a fad thing because companies want to be cool. Too many problems/limitations/high costs, and few benefits. And as I said automated vehicles will kill any remaining shot drones may have had.
- Zombieball 10y ago
  I think drone delivery makes a lot of sense in remote locations. What does a drone offer that a human courier doesn't? The cost savings from not having to haul a human meat bag hundreds of miles into the bush to hand deliver a parcel of medicine that could've been air dropped from a drone.
- losteric 10y ago
  Drones are good for extremely fast point-to-point and costs go way down if they're mass-produced. Far, far cheaper than human couriers. Automated delivery vans are strong competitor but there's a lot more red tape involved with AI vans... drones might fill the gap until vans are on the road. By that point the cost of operating a drone might be so low that they still operate for expedite point-to-point shipping (think Amazon's Prime Now vs Prime Same-day shipping)
- cstejerean 10y ago
  Except a lot of deliveries to residential areas happen when nobody is home. So getting a text to go outside and get my package from an automated vehicle won't help me at all. And this is where drones can come in handy. The drone could deliver the package from the truck to my doorstep. Sure, it may not work in urban areas with high rises but it will work just fine in single family house neighborhoods and that's a huge part of the country.
  - Zombieball 10y ago
    I think this highlights an important idea. The driverless vehicle and drone tech aren't mutually exclusive. You could potentially have a driverless box van that parks on a street corner and has drones pick packages off it and take them to your door.
    - arrosenberg 10y ago
      Without doing any of the math, this actually seems like the right solution. An automated truck that can drive around while a swarm of drones are continuously dropping off packages - basically an aircraft carrier.
ocdtrekkie 10y ago
I am honestly curious where the economics are going to come in. Drones aren't exactly a power efficient way to do something, and they're also heavily range limited in many cases. There are certain cases I could see it being really useful and effective, prescription drug deliveries make a lot of sense to do by drone, especially because of the possible urgency and mobility issues for many people needing them. And the fact that pill bottles are light.
- maxerickson 10y ago
  $0.50 buys an awful lot of electricity. I would expect other costs to be a bigger deal than energy. These drones have minutes of flight time carrying kgs of weight with Watt-hours of energy consumption: http://www.dronesglobe.com/guide/heavy-lift-drones/ http://www.dronesglobe.com/guide/heavy-lift-drones/ As a sanity check, Googling on drone electricity costs has other people saying pennies per delivery.
  - IanCal 10y ago
    > As a sanity check, Googling on drone electricity costs has other people saying pennies per delivery. This makes sense, even assuming half an hour in the air for each delivery, the cost of residential electricity in the UK would mean ~5p of electricity for a 1KW drone making a delivery.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

Someone1234 10y ago

From my perspective I think it is pretty clear that drone delivery is never going to happen and is just a fad. Firstly, let me just say, technologically drone delivery could definitely happen. There's no technical reason why not. But if we look at the history of freight it has always been about efficiency, and new competitors have always competed by finding ways of being cheaper. We already have less technical "drone delivery," it is called a courier, but outside of New York and a handful of other places they're niche. Nobody wants to pay to deliver just a single package, it is too expensive. Even services like "next day delivery" work on the principle of economy. You have trucks which are on other deliveries (economical ones) just drop off the "next day" packages between them. That makes these "unnaturally cheap." What do drones offer that a human courier doesn't? It cannot deliver inside most office buildings, you're still paying for fuel/maintenance/development/lost drones/etc. It likely has limited capacity. Plus let's look at competing technology coming up: Automated vehicles. How long until a delivery van can drive itself to your home, and then send you a text to meet it outside? That technology is coming with or without drone development, and solves some of a drone's inherent issues (poor capacity, lower maintenance, better economy, etc). I really think drones for deliveries won't go anywhere. It is just a fad thing because companies want to be cool. Too many problems/limitations/high costs, and few benefits. And as I said automated vehicles will kill any remaining shot drones may have had.

Zombieball 10y ago
I think drone delivery makes a lot of sense in remote locations. What does a drone offer that a human courier doesn't? The cost savings from not having to haul a human meat bag hundreds of miles into the bush to hand deliver a parcel of medicine that could've been air dropped from a drone.
losteric 10y ago
Drones are good for extremely fast point-to-point and costs go way down if they're mass-produced. Far, far cheaper than human couriers. Automated delivery vans are strong competitor but there's a lot more red tape involved with AI vans... drones might fill the gap until vans are on the road. By that point the cost of operating a drone might be so low that they still operate for expedite point-to-point shipping (think Amazon's Prime Now vs Prime Same-day shipping)
cstejerean 10y ago
Except a lot of deliveries to residential areas happen when nobody is home. So getting a text to go outside and get my package from an automated vehicle won't help me at all. And this is where drones can come in handy. The drone could deliver the package from the truck to my doorstep. Sure, it may not work in urban areas with high rises but it will work just fine in single family house neighborhoods and that's a huge part of the country.
- Zombieball 10y ago
  I think this highlights an important idea. The driverless vehicle and drone tech aren't mutually exclusive. You could potentially have a driverless box van that parks on a street corner and has drones pick packages off it and take them to your door.
  - arrosenberg 10y ago
    Without doing any of the math, this actually seems like the right solution. An automated truck that can drive around while a swarm of drones are continuously dropping off packages - basically an aircraft carrier.

ocdtrekkie 10y ago

I am honestly curious where the economics are going to come in. Drones aren't exactly a power efficient way to do something, and they're also heavily range limited in many cases. There are certain cases I could see it being really useful and effective, prescription drug deliveries make a lot of sense to do by drone, especially because of the possible urgency and mobility issues for many people needing them. And the fact that pill bottles are light.

maxerickson 10y ago
$0.50 buys an awful lot of electricity. I would expect other costs to be a bigger deal than energy. These drones have minutes of flight time carrying kgs of weight with Watt-hours of energy consumption: http://www.dronesglobe.com/guide/heavy-lift-drones/ http://www.dronesglobe.com/guide/heavy-lift-drones/ As a sanity check, Googling on drone electricity costs has other people saying pennies per delivery.
- IanCal 10y ago
  > As a sanity check, Googling on drone electricity costs has other people saying pennies per delivery. This makes sense, even assuming half an hour in the air for each delivery, the cost of residential electricity in the UK would mean ~5p of electricity for a 1KW drone making a delivery.