4 ms·

1-2 degrees globally. Celsius. And the predictions are consistently outpaced by reality.

JustUhThought 10y ago
So, you were talking about temp change to date. Not predicted. My comment speaks to your commenet incorrectly. Sorry about that. I can't revise or delete my comment on this device, or I would. My bad.
gruez 10y ago
To add to this, it's not as if temperatures everywhere went up by 1-2 degrees. polar areas are more affected than average by global warming
- vkou 10y ago
  The average world temperature is 1.4 C above the baseline this year. Yes, the poles have been hit the hardest, but we are still outpacing all predictions. Meanwhile, in 2015, the world's governments have agreed to cap warming to 2.0 C by 2100... But won't take any action today. Why do I have the feeling that we will completely miss that target?
  - CWuestefeld 10y ago
    but we are still outpacing all predictions. It's this kind of stuff that I'm arguing about. First, there's a wide range of predictions, and up until a decade ago, the measurements were middle of the road across them - far from "ALL predicitons". Then came the "pause". For over a decade, the warming seemed to pause. Notice I emphasize "seemed". The observed atmospheric temperature barely moved at all, it was way below ALL predictions. [1] I'm not denying, I'm not claiming that the "pause" disproves the theory. We know that there were other phenomena occurring, like oceans acting as a buffer. But the fact remains that observed temperatures deviated significantly below predictions for a protracted period of time. When people come along and make claims like we are still outpacing all predictions, they make it easy for deniers to single out these exaggerations and pretend like their inaccuracy disproves the whole idea. By giving the deniers an easy strawman to argue against, you're creating an obstacle to real progress on the problem. [1] "Scientists who study climate change and skeptics of human-caused global warming can agree on at least this: Global temperatures haven't risen nearly as much this century as model projections say they should have." -- https://www.wunderground.com/news/no-hiatus-pause-global-warming-climate-change-heres-why-20140109 https://www.wunderground.com/news/no-hiatus-pause-global-war... Of course, if you read on, you'll find proposed explanations for the phenomenon. But as far as atmospheric measurements go, it's absolutely false that things have been worse than predicted, and downright absurd to claim that things have been worse than "all" (i.e., even the most pessimistic) predictions.
    - vkou 10y ago
      When I say all predictions, I should have quantified it as 'all predictions used by policymakers'. There are certainly apocalyptic models that have called for more warming then what we've seen. We aren't using them to set policy - we are using models that have been underestimating the impact of warming.
qeternity 10y ago
What are you talking about? Reality has far underpaced most climate models. I'm not a denier either, but let's get the facts straight.

So, you were talking about temp change to date. Not predicted. My comment speaks to your commenet incorrectly. Sorry about that. I can't revise or delete my comment on this device, or I would. My bad.

gruez 10y ago

To add to this, it's not as if temperatures everywhere went up by 1-2 degrees. polar areas are more affected than average by global warming

vkou 10y ago
The average world temperature is 1.4 C above the baseline this year. Yes, the poles have been hit the hardest, but we are still outpacing all predictions. Meanwhile, in 2015, the world's governments have agreed to cap warming to 2.0 C by 2100... But won't take any action today. Why do I have the feeling that we will completely miss that target?
- CWuestefeld 10y ago
  but we are still outpacing all predictions. It's this kind of stuff that I'm arguing about. First, there's a wide range of predictions, and up until a decade ago, the measurements were middle of the road across them - far from "ALL predicitons". Then came the "pause". For over a decade, the warming seemed to pause. Notice I emphasize "seemed". The observed atmospheric temperature barely moved at all, it was way below ALL predictions. [1] I'm not denying, I'm not claiming that the "pause" disproves the theory. We know that there were other phenomena occurring, like oceans acting as a buffer. But the fact remains that observed temperatures deviated significantly below predictions for a protracted period of time. When people come along and make claims like we are still outpacing all predictions, they make it easy for deniers to single out these exaggerations and pretend like their inaccuracy disproves the whole idea. By giving the deniers an easy strawman to argue against, you're creating an obstacle to real progress on the problem. [1] "Scientists who study climate change and skeptics of human-caused global warming can agree on at least this: Global temperatures haven't risen nearly as much this century as model projections say they should have." -- https://www.wunderground.com/news/no-hiatus-pause-global-warming-climate-change-heres-why-20140109 https://www.wunderground.com/news/no-hiatus-pause-global-war... Of course, if you read on, you'll find proposed explanations for the phenomenon. But as far as atmospheric measurements go, it's absolutely false that things have been worse than predicted, and downright absurd to claim that things have been worse than "all" (i.e., even the most pessimistic) predictions.
  - vkou 10y ago
    When I say all predictions, I should have quantified it as 'all predictions used by policymakers'. There are certainly apocalyptic models that have called for more warming then what we've seen. We aren't using them to set policy - we are using models that have been underestimating the impact of warming.

qeternity 10y ago

What are you talking about? Reality has far underpaced most climate models. I'm not a denier either, but let's get the facts straight.