> Consider that we have ~100 billion brain neurons and 100-500 trillion synaptic interconnections and each connection is modulated by many factors including end

> Consider that we have ~100 billion brain neurons and 100-500 trillion synaptic interconnections and each connection is modulated by many factors including endocrine and immune system input. Furthermore connections transmit and receive many kinds of signals in complex feedback relationships. This is exactly why estimates of AGI in the next 20 years are laughable. It isn't the neuron that we have to emulate. It is the communication between neurons that we have to emulate. It is absolutely correct that a 1:1 artificial to natural neuron will not be the case. Current artificial neurons (all deep learning neurons) are nowhere near as complex as a natural neuron. It will more likely be 10-100:1 artificial neurons for each neuron. Bandwidth to communicate information between neural processing will be the bottleneck (rather than operations per second). Bits per second is multiple orders of magnitude higher than operations per second in human intelligence and our available bandwidth is at least an order of magnitude lower than our operations per second. That means we are at least 10,000 fold farther in terms of raw processing tech than the most optimistic estimates of ~20 years. 10,000 fold. That is 13-14 doubling times or 26-28 years longer than the most optimistic estimates. That is assuming something like Moore's law holds for technology over the next 46-48 years. That is the time until the fastest supercomputers will be able to emulate one human mind assuming we have figured out the algorithms. 40-60 years is a more reasonable time frame for one human mind on one supercomputer. Everyone should have a pretty good feel for the worth of a prediction that will happen 50 years in the future. There will be at least two more AI winters.