I actually mean solely abiogenesis. From the perspective of the Drake Equation [0], I think it's likely that ne [1] is quite low, and fl [2] is quite high. I do

I actually mean solely abiogenesis. From the perspective of the Drake Equation [0], I think it's likely that ne [1] is quite low, and fl [2] is quite high. I don't think we can speculate on fi [3], given a sample size of 1. Though as we seem to be somewhat of an anomaly across several great extinction events, a low estimate there seems fair as a starting point. The great filter theory implies that the last two terms are also low, but again, my point was mainly focused on going from no life to basic life. Essentially I think that while there are improbably steps between inert matter and consciousness, abiogenesis itself does not seem to be one of them, though the suitability for abiogenesis likely is. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation#Equation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation#Equation [1] the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets [2] the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point [3] the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)