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There was a discussion thread a while back about this on HN [1]. The first argument is a fairly weak argument/theory but about the same strength as most of the

by agentgt 10y ago

There was a discussion thread a while back about this on HN [1]. The first argument is a fairly weak argument/theory but about the same strength as most of the other common arguments/theories. To me the strongest argument that there is a paradox is the idea of probes that can replicate. That it would be fairly easy with some sort of advance but not FTL technology to easily deal with the size and expansion of the universe (of course I could be full of it on this as I haven't looked into this idea in some time). Basically why haven't we run into a probe yet? [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9916085 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9916085

p_zakharov 10y ago
Issuing von Neumann probes like this seems like a flashing neon advertisement of your presence in space: not necessarily the best strategic choice. On the other hand it's possible that such a species of probe already exists but is more or less of the Fred Saberhagen Berserker variety and desires to operate stealthily. Perhaps the crews of these vessels like to sing Das Lied vom außerirdischen U-Boot Mann. (As you might have already guessed I have views on astrobiology vastly different from those of the late Carl Sagan.)
Teever 10y ago
My personal belief is that we haven't run into them yet because they are quietly observing us from the asteroid belt. It's only been a few years since we have been able to even begin to survey the solar system and that would mean that a bracewell probe could have been burrowed in an asteroid for millenia observing the development of the human race. Perhaps it choses to not make contact with us because we have not yet crossed a threshold that it is programmed to observe before making contact/annihilating us.
- WildUtah 10y ago
  There used to be thousands of UFO sightings every year. Now with the arrival of smartphones and ubiquitous cameras, there are almost none. Which indicates that the UFOs are an intelligent civilization that is adapting to observe us in secret. Whenever we develop means of tracking them, they hide better.
openasocket 10y ago
The Neumann probe idea has one flaw: it's assumed the probes will propagate and spread largely unimpeded. However, any interstellar civilization which encounters a probe is going to capture it and analyze/destroy it. They would not allow it to float though their territory and replicate. At the least they will intercept any that enter their territory; if the civilization gets annoyed they may embark on a campaign to wipe out as many as they can. Which leads us to two possible explanations, assuming a civilization has already sent out probes: 1. The civilization was bordered on all sides by other interstellar civilizations, which stopped the probes from spreading. 2. Our civilization is bordered on all sides by other interstellar civilizations (or perhaps is in a remote backwater of a civilization, like uncontacted indigenous tribes in the Amazon), which stopped the probes from reaching us. There's even a third, somewhat stranger and less likely option: 3. Some civilization is profoundly annoyed by Neumann probes, and has devoted themselves to destroying them everywhere. They made their own stealthy fighter probes, which wander deep space destroying any probes they may find. Perhaps they are keyed in to one specific model of probe that annoyed them, or perhaps will target any unmanned spacecraft with certain properties.
- agentgt 10y ago
  4. I would add an even stranger 4th option in that given the probes are sufficient intelligence they perhaps "evolve" into an uncontrolled state. That could mean as simply as getting stuck like in local minimum in the hill climbing algorithm or something extremely complex as a probe like civilization (aka Star Trek 1 but in this case no longer cares about space exploration).
  - mcbits 10y ago
    5. The von Neumann probes are microscopic and densely packed with a chemical structure encoding the information needed to reproduce in a variety of environments. Occasionally some of them mutate and get stuck in a planet's gravitational well, where they keep reproducing and mutating into who-knows-what. The urge to explore the cosmos is never completely lost, and eventually they reach a state where it's possible to continue the mission.
- 10y ago

by agentgt 10y ago

p_zakharov 10y ago

Issuing von Neumann probes like this seems like a flashing neon advertisement of your presence in space: not necessarily the best strategic choice. On the other hand it's possible that such a species of probe already exists but is more or less of the Fred Saberhagen Berserker variety and desires to operate stealthily. Perhaps the crews of these vessels like to sing Das Lied vom außerirdischen U-Boot Mann. (As you might have already guessed I have views on astrobiology vastly different from those of the late Carl Sagan.)

Teever 10y ago

My personal belief is that we haven't run into them yet because they are quietly observing us from the asteroid belt. It's only been a few years since we have been able to even begin to survey the solar system and that would mean that a bracewell probe could have been burrowed in an asteroid for millenia observing the development of the human race. Perhaps it choses to not make contact with us because we have not yet crossed a threshold that it is programmed to observe before making contact/annihilating us.

WildUtah 10y ago
There used to be thousands of UFO sightings every year. Now with the arrival of smartphones and ubiquitous cameras, there are almost none. Which indicates that the UFOs are an intelligent civilization that is adapting to observe us in secret. Whenever we develop means of tracking them, they hide better.

openasocket 10y ago

The Neumann probe idea has one flaw: it's assumed the probes will propagate and spread largely unimpeded. However, any interstellar civilization which encounters a probe is going to capture it and analyze/destroy it. They would not allow it to float though their territory and replicate. At the least they will intercept any that enter their territory; if the civilization gets annoyed they may embark on a campaign to wipe out as many as they can. Which leads us to two possible explanations, assuming a civilization has already sent out probes: 1. The civilization was bordered on all sides by other interstellar civilizations, which stopped the probes from spreading. 2. Our civilization is bordered on all sides by other interstellar civilizations (or perhaps is in a remote backwater of a civilization, like uncontacted indigenous tribes in the Amazon), which stopped the probes from reaching us. There's even a third, somewhat stranger and less likely option: 3. Some civilization is profoundly annoyed by Neumann probes, and has devoted themselves to destroying them everywhere. They made their own stealthy fighter probes, which wander deep space destroying any probes they may find. Perhaps they are keyed in to one specific model of probe that annoyed them, or perhaps will target any unmanned spacecraft with certain properties.

agentgt 10y ago
4. I would add an even stranger 4th option in that given the probes are sufficient intelligence they perhaps "evolve" into an uncontrolled state. That could mean as simply as getting stuck like in local minimum in the hill climbing algorithm or something extremely complex as a probe like civilization (aka Star Trek 1 but in this case no longer cares about space exploration).
- mcbits 10y ago
  5. The von Neumann probes are microscopic and densely packed with a chemical structure encoding the information needed to reproduce in a variety of environments. Occasionally some of them mutate and get stuck in a planet's gravitational well, where they keep reproducing and mutating into who-knows-what. The urge to explore the cosmos is never completely lost, and eventually they reach a state where it's possible to continue the mission.
10y ago