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I think at this point it is fair to say you are being uncharitable in your interpretation of my point. I'll point out to things I take issue with your analysis
by djb_hackernews 10y ago
I think at this point it is fair to say you are being uncharitable in your interpretation of my point.
I'll point out to things I take issue with your analysis:
1) The neighborhoods you are using to illustrate your point are tiny
2) I'll entertain this though. Looking at all properties currently for sale on redfin in Presidio Heights and comparing the per square foot price to Back Bay, they are about the same. In fact, the outliers are way more expensive in Boston. The most expensive in BB is $8.7M and gets you 2700 sqft. The most expensive in Presidio Heights is $11M and gets you 7000 sqft! For 25% more money you get 160% more living space in a private home with private outdoor space. This isn't a phenomenon isolated to the most expensive neighborhoods either. I used Back Bay and SoMA because I think they are comparable in that they are the most desirable neighborhoods for people that want to live in the city. I haven't spent much time in Presidio Heights but it feels more like Brookline, which is great but people don't live there if they want to be able to have 50 restaurants within stones throw and easy access to public transportation and even then Brookline is a difficult comparison for many reasons.
I hope that you can understand that my argument isn't that Boston is more expensive than SF on purchase price terms but that your money actually goes further in SF on a per square foot and amenities basis. I know it's not intuitive when Zillow is telling you that SF is more expensive than Boston in pure dollar terms but they don't answer the question of what does that extra money buy you and the answer is extremely tangible benefits.
- dpark 10y ago> 1) The neighborhoods you are using to illustrate your point are tiny Back Bay is also a tiny neighborhood. I don't know how much area each of these neighborhoods really covers, but Back Bay looks similar in size to Pacific Heights. > 2) I'll entertain this though. Looking at all properties currently for sale on redfin in Presidio Heights and comparing the per square foot price to Back Bay, they are about the same. As I mentioned in response to your other comment, comparing the most expensive areas is not actually very illuminating. Back Bay is not representative of Boston, just as Presidio is not actually representative of SF. Outliers are by definition not representative. Back Bay is also an absurdly small sample. There are only 7 properties listed. Multiple units in the same brand new buildings are effectively the same sample. As I noted, Presidio actually has no new construction properties for sale. This isn't an accurate picture of SF, though. It's not really even an accurate picture of Prisidio, because the sampling is not reliable (zero samples for new construction, and only 6 samples for all construction). > I hope that you can understand that my argument isn't that Boston is more expensive than SF on purchase price terms but that your money actually goes further in SF on a per square foot and amenities basis. I know it's not intuitive when Zillow is telling you that SF is more expensive than Boston in pure dollar terms but they don't answer the question of what does that extra money buy you and the answer is extremely tangible benefits. I understand you're trying to make that point, but you're wrong. You don't have to live in Back Bay to have city living and a nice place in Boston. You can buy a nice place and have have 50 restaurants nearby in many neighborhoods in Boston. Yes, Boston is expensive. No one is disputing that. It's not more expensive than SF. You are cherry-picking the most expensive neighborhood in all of Boston and comparing with an average neighborhood in SF. This is not like for like. Average for 2005+ construction in SoMA is $783,000. The average for 2005+ in SF as a whole is $1,199,000. So you're actually not even comparing with an average for SF. You're comparing with a cheaper neighborhood. (Mostly it's cheaper because the sample size is too small. If you drop the 2005+ filter, the pricing for SoMA is basically the same as SF as a whole. Again, evidence that tiny samples of small neighborhoods is not a fair way to compare.) https://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/11212/CA/San-Francisco/SoMa/filter/sort=lo-price,min-year-built=2005 https://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/11212/CA/San-Francisco/S... https://www.redfin.com/city/17151/CA/San-Francisco/filter/sort=lo-price,min-year-built=2005 https://www.redfin.com/city/17151/CA/San-Francisco/filter/so...
- djb_hackernews 10y ago> Back Bay is also a tiny neighborhood. I don't know how much area each of these neighborhoods really covers, but Back Bay looks similar in size to Pacific Heights. Back Bay is 340 acres, Presidio Heights is 140 acres... > As I mentioned in response to your other comment, comparing the most expensive areas is not actually very illuminating. Back Bay is not representative of Boston, just as Presidio is not actually representative of SF. Outliers are by definition not representative. I was using it to illustrate a point because some people insist on comparing entire cities average prices to determine what city has more expensive housing... > Average for 2005+ construction in SoMA is $783,000. The average for 2005+ in SF as a whole is $1,199,000. So you're actually not even comparing with an average for SF. You're comparing with a cheaper neighborhood. (Mostly it's cheaper because the sample size is too small. If you drop the 2005+ filter, the pricing for SoMA is basically the same as SF as a whole. Again, evidence that tiny samples of small neighborhoods is not a fair way to compare.) Again, you are making the mistake of comparing aggregate prices. You can't say SF is more expensive than Boston even if average(SF) > average(Boston) because it doesn't tell the whole story. - The housing stock is older than in SF - Boston land area is twice the size as SF I'm not sure what would satisfy your notion of like for like, but from my time in SF and Boston I feel pretty comfortable comparing Back Bay and SoMA purely in terms of relative location, public transportation, crime, housing density, "culture", etc. > Back Bay is also an absurdly small sample. There are only 7 properties listed. Multiple units in the same brand new buildings are effectively the same sample. As I noted, Presidio actually has no new construction properties for sale. This isn't an accurate picture of SF, though. It's not really even an accurate picture of Prisidio, because the sampling is not reliable (zero samples for new construction, and only 6 samples for all construction). I just checked Redfin and I see there are 21 homes built since 2005 and 89 overall. If you are using Zillow that may explain why you aren't seeing all properties, I highly recommend switching to Redfin because it'll have more up to date information simply due it being an agent itself and not an aggregator.