4 ms·

Yeah, the car companies are also fucked. Prepare for massive consolidation on that front. One or perhaps two or three car manufacturers will swallow the whole

by warcher 10y ago

Yeah, the car companies are also fucked. Prepare for massive consolidation on that front. One or perhaps two or three car manufacturers will swallow the whole market as demand craters. (We all own our own cars because it's a necessity at this point. It won't stay that way in a driverless future. Nor will cars be the status signifier they currently are.) I actually think the form factor most cars come in will become obsolete-- I think they'll be mostly vans and buses to cope with economies of scale on the rider front and to handle rush hour surges. Who makes the bus you last rode on? Do you know? I know I don't, nor do I care. I mean, Uber is totally fucked if this comes down the pipe and they're not running things, that's undeniable. Their value proposition is running this two sided marketplace that's going to turn into a one sided marketplace. And yeah, putting together a mobile app is a completely different universe than becoming a major auto manufacturer, or a robotics manufacturer of unprecedented scale. (Or in reality, both.)

squozzer 10y ago
I think we have some thoughts in common; however, I foresee a future where people pay a monthly fee for a individually-sized self-driving car (maybe on the order of a smart car) to pick them up, take them to work, and drop them off. Then do the reverse later in the day. This assumes the future requires people to actually travel to work. Decoupling car use with car ownership also makes short-ranged EVs much more viable. Once the car drops you off, it heads back to the mother ship to recharge. A different car most likely would pick you up later anyway. Why I think driverless cars will beat driverless buses is privacy and flexibility. A bus still has to run on a schedule, driver or no, and let's face it, sharing space with people has its downsides. Hypothetically, Uber could still co-ordinate rides as a spot market, or get into the "car subscription" / "transportation as a service" industry. But the first movers in that space will likely have to own their fleets.
erroneousfunk 10y ago
Demand may go down, but I don't see the car market necessarily consolidating (or going away) like you're implying here. Technology and economic growth often increases the number of "single person/family" consumer products, rather than decreases them. The "sharing economy" isn't necessarily the default goal that everyone progresses towards for all products (although it may seem like that at times, living in a tech bubble), and "cars" have historically been one of those products that people buy more of, rather than less, as time goes on. Whether this will hold true in the future, who knows? But I don't see it as a given that the market will drastically decrease. People like customizing their cars, storing things in them, the familiarity of them, and treating them as a "home away from home" even if it's just going to the grocery store. My husband even gets anxious when he's away from home without his car (if, say, we're on vacation or we took a cab somewhere. He never takes public transportation). It's a guaranteed safe place, a way back home, and something he can count on. Sure, you may feel very differently, but you are not every person. And when you say: "Who makes the bus you last rode on?" Well, I did't have the dubious pleasure of experiencing a city bus until I was 22. Sure, now I ride one every day, but I know plenty of adults who have never been on a bus, much less have convenient access to a route. And while driverless vehicles may facilitate the expansion of public transportation to increasingly rural areas, at some point, you'll hit an absolute mathematical wall at which "the cost of the car transporting itself from customer to customer" will be greater than "the cost savings/reduced environmental impact of sharing the car" Long story short: I think your assessment of the market is a little premature and somewhat egocentric. Sure, it could absolutely happen that way, but I could also see driverless cars becoming an even more "single user/personal consumer product" than they are today. It's hard to say.
- warcher 10y ago
  Cars are expensive. Cars are also mostly sitting idle. These are objective facts. For most of the country, the only bill bigger than their combined car payment/maintenance is their mortgage. That's a lot of money. I think a combination school-bus-for-adults/carpool would have a lot of traction if you could automate it. How much is that gonna cut into the car market? Remains to be seen. But not nothing, for sure. And moving cars into a service model is, in my opinion, gonna make a lot of the pricing more transparent. You want an SUV, you'll have to pay for it per ride. You want your own private car, pay per ride. I think consumers, when faced with spending the extra buck on an a la carte basis, are going to start looking into cheaper options. Rush hour surges are gonna be a big strain on the system, and I really think that school bus model is going to take off. Everybody going more or less in the same direction at the same time, get on the bus and save a ton of money. Maybe it just turns multiple car families (the default) into single car families. But even that would be a seismic shift in the auto industry.

by warcher 10y ago

squozzer 10y ago

I think we have some thoughts in common; however, I foresee a future where people pay a monthly fee for a individually-sized self-driving car (maybe on the order of a smart car) to pick them up, take them to work, and drop them off. Then do the reverse later in the day. This assumes the future requires people to actually travel to work. Decoupling car use with car ownership also makes short-ranged EVs much more viable. Once the car drops you off, it heads back to the mother ship to recharge. A different car most likely would pick you up later anyway. Why I think driverless cars will beat driverless buses is privacy and flexibility. A bus still has to run on a schedule, driver or no, and let's face it, sharing space with people has its downsides. Hypothetically, Uber could still co-ordinate rides as a spot market, or get into the "car subscription" / "transportation as a service" industry. But the first movers in that space will likely have to own their fleets.

erroneousfunk 10y ago

Demand may go down, but I don't see the car market necessarily consolidating (or going away) like you're implying here. Technology and economic growth often increases the number of "single person/family" consumer products, rather than decreases them. The "sharing economy" isn't necessarily the default goal that everyone progresses towards for all products (although it may seem like that at times, living in a tech bubble), and "cars" have historically been one of those products that people buy more of, rather than less, as time goes on. Whether this will hold true in the future, who knows? But I don't see it as a given that the market will drastically decrease. People like customizing their cars, storing things in them, the familiarity of them, and treating them as a "home away from home" even if it's just going to the grocery store. My husband even gets anxious when he's away from home without his car (if, say, we're on vacation or we took a cab somewhere. He never takes public transportation). It's a guaranteed safe place, a way back home, and something he can count on. Sure, you may feel very differently, but you are not every person. And when you say: "Who makes the bus you last rode on?" Well, I did't have the dubious pleasure of experiencing a city bus until I was 22. Sure, now I ride one every day, but I know plenty of adults who have never been on a bus, much less have convenient access to a route. And while driverless vehicles may facilitate the expansion of public transportation to increasingly rural areas, at some point, you'll hit an absolute mathematical wall at which "the cost of the car transporting itself from customer to customer" will be greater than "the cost savings/reduced environmental impact of sharing the car" Long story short: I think your assessment of the market is a little premature and somewhat egocentric. Sure, it could absolutely happen that way, but I could also see driverless cars becoming an even more "single user/personal consumer product" than they are today. It's hard to say.

warcher 10y ago
Cars are expensive. Cars are also mostly sitting idle. These are objective facts. For most of the country, the only bill bigger than their combined car payment/maintenance is their mortgage. That's a lot of money. I think a combination school-bus-for-adults/carpool would have a lot of traction if you could automate it. How much is that gonna cut into the car market? Remains to be seen. But not nothing, for sure. And moving cars into a service model is, in my opinion, gonna make a lot of the pricing more transparent. You want an SUV, you'll have to pay for it per ride. You want your own private car, pay per ride. I think consumers, when faced with spending the extra buck on an a la carte basis, are going to start looking into cheaper options. Rush hour surges are gonna be a big strain on the system, and I really think that school bus model is going to take off. Everybody going more or less in the same direction at the same time, get on the bus and save a ton of money. Maybe it just turns multiple car families (the default) into single car families. But even that would be a seismic shift in the auto industry.