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As soon as there's strong evidence (from multiple credible sources) that self-driving tech reduces accidents and fatalities, the government conversation will sw

by troymc 10y ago

As soon as there's strong evidence (from multiple credible sources) that self-driving tech reduces accidents and fatalities, the government conversation will switch from, "How shall we regulate this?" to "Oh! These are like seat belts. How shall we encourage them?" In other words, governments will speed up adoption, eventually. The owners of the car fleets will be the car manufacturers because they're the ones who can pay the least per car. They don't have to pay any markup! The self-driving tech will come from Google, Tesla, Apple, or the like, not Uber. See the blog post for the reasons why.

dogma1138 10y ago
>As soon as there's strong evidence (from multiple credible sources) that self-driving tech reduces accidents and fatalities, the government conversation will switch from, "How shall we regulate this?" to "Oh! These are like seat belts. How shall we encourage them?" Only 34 states have a primary seat belt law and that took decades of legislature to push through. Legislation takes time, if you think it would be 10 years before we have enough data on autopilot you are fooling yourself, and going from autopilot to driverless will not happen overnight. If we take the US then again it's unlikely that the federal government would get involved on any reasonable time table, this means that the driverless car makers would have to lobby each state individually. Until the big car makers would have a foolproof driverless car Apple and Tesla can do whatever they want they will not match the power of the auto industry lobby just look at how much problems Tesla is having over dealerships. It doesn't matter who's making the driverless car, Uber has the user base and the platform saying that Tesla is making a driverless car is meaningless unless you would want to make the same argument that Uber should only onboard drivers that drive a Honda or a Ford today because they their cars come in blue. If Uber survives until driverless cars really pick up (and BTW the 10-20 year window isn't only my opinion, I don't think even Tesla thinks that their car would become driverless road ready or road legal before 2025) and is not torn apart but anti-Uber legislation and sentiment then the driverless car would be the thing to save it not kill it.

by troymc 10y ago

dogma1138 10y ago

>As soon as there's strong evidence (from multiple credible sources) that self-driving tech reduces accidents and fatalities, the government conversation will switch from, "How shall we regulate this?" to "Oh! These are like seat belts. How shall we encourage them?" Only 34 states have a primary seat belt law and that took decades of legislature to push through. Legislation takes time, if you think it would be 10 years before we have enough data on autopilot you are fooling yourself, and going from autopilot to driverless will not happen overnight. If we take the US then again it's unlikely that the federal government would get involved on any reasonable time table, this means that the driverless car makers would have to lobby each state individually. Until the big car makers would have a foolproof driverless car Apple and Tesla can do whatever they want they will not match the power of the auto industry lobby just look at how much problems Tesla is having over dealerships. It doesn't matter who's making the driverless car, Uber has the user base and the platform saying that Tesla is making a driverless car is meaningless unless you would want to make the same argument that Uber should only onboard drivers that drive a Honda or a Ford today because they their cars come in blue. If Uber survives until driverless cars really pick up (and BTW the 10-20 year window isn't only my opinion, I don't think even Tesla thinks that their car would become driverless road ready or road legal before 2025) and is not torn apart but anti-Uber legislation and sentiment then the driverless car would be the thing to save it not kill it.