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I don't understand the point of this. So the goal is to get better at estimating? In my experience tasks vary in difficulty from one to the next, and it's very

by dkrich 10y ago

I don't understand the point of this. So the goal is to get better at estimating? In my experience tasks vary in difficulty from one to the next, and it's very difficult if not completely useless to formulate an estimate for the time required to do it. The only time work estimates are useful, IMO, is when you are estimating an exact fixed amount of labor which you have completed under similar circumstances at least a few times. I think if you badger employees about their estimates and not getting things done that they promised, that will lead to those employees overestimating the amount of time required, just to be sure that they don't end up not meeting the estimated timeline. That seems like a net loss for productivity. Rather than encouraging people to stretch themselves and get more done, you're leading them to believe that it's much more important not to miss self-imposed deadlines.

repeek 10y ago
Sounds great in theory, but most companies need to have some level of confidence of when things will get done and how much it will cost. Estimating is important because it gives management the ability to deploy resources strategically and manage expectations. Bad managers think estimates are a promise/guarantee. Assuming the estimates were arrived at with as much clarity as possible (planning poker), good managers understand that estimates are a tool to aid decision-making.
- engi_nerd 10y ago
  To support your point: For many companies, having a defined degree of confidence in estimates is a requirement of doing business. Any DoD contract in excess of $25 million USD, for example, must be performed by a company with a DoD certified Earned Value Management plan. You had better get your estimate process right there, because you're held accountable for it.
  - dkrich 10y ago
    As a person who has worked for several years with two major government contractors, several agencies, and countless projects, this is humorous to me, because I have never, not once, seen a large project estimate end up anywhere close to reality. Typically the process is that the contractor has an internal pricing team that figures out how much to bid on a contract. After the contractor wins the bid (assuming fixed price), they then staff it with some combination of employees with various rates to meet the bid cost. Then those employees write up a detailed set of requirements (keep in mind that this occurs after the bid has been accepted), and then the project begins and things really get screwed up. Life happens. People leave the company. Clients are waaaaaaaaaay slower than anticipated taking care of required administrative work like approving user access and granting PIV cards. Clients change their mind or didn't account for several important considerations that may or may not involve huge amounts of work. So how do the companies remain profitable through all this? It's usually that as the due date moves closer and closer, employees are expected to just work more hours to account for the missed estimate. This may come off as cynical, but the truth is that there is not a soul on Earth who could accurately estimate how much time will be required on a multiyear contract given how many variables are involved. So, I'm back to my original point- estimates are largely worthless and a waste of time. Yes, they are a means to an end, but are in no way a reliable indicator as to how much time or effort is actually required to complete the work.
    - engi_nerd 10y ago
      I've never seen a large project be close to the original estimate, either. But that doesn't stop the customer from thinking that estimate is what's going to happen. As an employee of a huge contractor myself, you aren't wrong. The contracts people will always want to see the EVM plan. The contractor's budget people will compare the estimate to prior actuals and somehow come up with an estimate they think is good. And then you will run over, and the government will try to hold you accountable, even though the causes of your overruns may be requirements changes from the customers. I apologize if my original post presented this rosy picture that estimates are wonderful and always work. I guess some recent training came through a little too much.

by dkrich 10y ago

repeek 10y ago

Sounds great in theory, but most companies need to have some level of confidence of when things will get done and how much it will cost. Estimating is important because it gives management the ability to deploy resources strategically and manage expectations. Bad managers think estimates are a promise/guarantee. Assuming the estimates were arrived at with as much clarity as possible (planning poker), good managers understand that estimates are a tool to aid decision-making.

engi_nerd 10y ago
To support your point: For many companies, having a defined degree of confidence in estimates is a requirement of doing business. Any DoD contract in excess of $25 million USD, for example, must be performed by a company with a DoD certified Earned Value Management plan. You had better get your estimate process right there, because you're held accountable for it.
- dkrich 10y ago
  As a person who has worked for several years with two major government contractors, several agencies, and countless projects, this is humorous to me, because I have never, not once, seen a large project estimate end up anywhere close to reality. Typically the process is that the contractor has an internal pricing team that figures out how much to bid on a contract. After the contractor wins the bid (assuming fixed price), they then staff it with some combination of employees with various rates to meet the bid cost. Then those employees write up a detailed set of requirements (keep in mind that this occurs after the bid has been accepted), and then the project begins and things really get screwed up. Life happens. People leave the company. Clients are waaaaaaaaaay slower than anticipated taking care of required administrative work like approving user access and granting PIV cards. Clients change their mind or didn't account for several important considerations that may or may not involve huge amounts of work. So how do the companies remain profitable through all this? It's usually that as the due date moves closer and closer, employees are expected to just work more hours to account for the missed estimate. This may come off as cynical, but the truth is that there is not a soul on Earth who could accurately estimate how much time will be required on a multiyear contract given how many variables are involved. So, I'm back to my original point- estimates are largely worthless and a waste of time. Yes, they are a means to an end, but are in no way a reliable indicator as to how much time or effort is actually required to complete the work.
  - engi_nerd 10y ago
    I've never seen a large project be close to the original estimate, either. But that doesn't stop the customer from thinking that estimate is what's going to happen. As an employee of a huge contractor myself, you aren't wrong. The contracts people will always want to see the EVM plan. The contractor's budget people will compare the estimate to prior actuals and somehow come up with an estimate they think is good. And then you will run over, and the government will try to hold you accountable, even though the causes of your overruns may be requirements changes from the customers. I apologize if my original post presented this rosy picture that estimates are wonderful and always work. I guess some recent training came through a little too much.