There are markets, and then there are prediction markets. The two are not quite the same thing. There are a lot of assumptions in your argument, like the numbe

There are markets, and then there are prediction markets. The two are not quite the same thing. There are a lot of assumptions in your argument, like the number of participants in a prediction market being meaningfully higher and meaningfully more interested than actual project stakeholders. You're also assuming that such people are less biased and more neutral than other people who have to suffer office politics. Everyone has mental baggage and taking part in a "market" doesn't change that.