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If you do the math, best case scenario: Tesla's budget model will have twice the range (~200 miles) of the Nissan Leaf at the same price point ($30k). This assu

If you do the math, best case scenario: Tesla's budget model will have twice the range (~200 miles) of the Nissan Leaf at the same price point ($30k). This assumes that Tesla is capable of a $35k model today. My estimate for a 200 mile battery power pack today is around $20,000 going by what amateur EV enthusiasts have managed, using the same 18650 cells.

maxerickson 10y ago
It's seems a little unlikely that the Leaf would see 0 progress. There's also a Bolt in the room. It's pretty likely to ship this year, with a 200 mile range and competitive price point.
- tcoppi 10y ago
  The Bolt is probably the closest competitor to what Tesla is doing right now for EVs. They have the range, but they still haven't figured out styling or performance, nor is the charging infrastructure as robust yet.
  - forgetsusername 10y ago
    >The Bolt is probably the closest competitor to what Tesla is doing right now for EVs. The Model S is 2x the price (and 10x the car). I don't think they are competition. Or do you mean the Model 3? As of right now it's nothing but a prototype, so I'm not sure that's competition either. Theoretically it will be $30k with 200mile range, but I'm skeptical.
    - tcoppi 10y ago
      I meant the Model 3. Theoretically it will be $35k for a base model with 200 mile range, and the Bolt is also not much less theoretical than the Model 3 at this point. There are lots of reasons to be skeptical about the time frame of availability and hitting production numbers of the Model 3, but Tesla has been pretty good about hitting the raw performance and price numbers they announce.
  - protomyth 10y ago
    Doesn't the Bolt use a fairly standard charging cable? I see those connectors in parking garages and grocery store parking lots.
    - tcoppi 10y ago
      There are adapters for Teslas to use basically every standardized(or otherwise) EV charging connector. No other brand has access to the long-range and fast-charging supercharger network however, which is a rather large part of the value proposition of owning a Tesla for many people, as it mostly removes the need to rent or own a vehicle for longer trips.
      - gozur88 10y ago
        But the supercharger network is woefully inadequate for the number of Model 3 vehicles they intend to produce. Either Tesla is going to have to put a whole lot of money into its supercharger network (more than they've announced, certainly), or they'll have to restrict it to Model S owners.
        greglindahl 10y ago
        I recall (at the M3 event) that Elon said what they plan to build (2X current stalls) by the time Model 3 is released. Of course that's inadequate for future demand; it seems that they're scaling the network linearly with the number of cars sold which have access to the network.
    - NickM 10y ago
      Unfortunately, most of the public charging stations out there are pretty pointless due to their slow charging speed. Without faster charging, you can't do long-distance travel (nobody wants to stop for 4-8 hours in the middle of a road trip to recharge), so the only value they offer is for longer charging sessions while the driver is already in the area for work/shopping/etc. However, even then, you can't really rely on their availability, since it's always possible someone will already be there tying up the station for an 8-hour stretch...so they really aren't terribly useful or convenient for the vast majority of EV owners. I would argue that the only charging network out there that really makes sense is Tesla's Supercharger network: it actually charges fast enough to make road trips practical, is generally quite reliable, and typically includes at least 6-8 stalls per station to avoid congestion during peak travel times. This gives Tesla a huge competitive advantage over other EV manufacturers, and I think it'll be a long time before anyone catches up to them in this regard.
  - marvin 10y ago
    The Bolt will also not be able to ship in nearly the volumes of Tesla Model 3.
    - greglindahl 10y ago
      Wikipedia has 2 sources that report that the plan is 25k-30k cars per year (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Bolt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Bolt). Now that Model 3 received so many reservations, I'd guess that GM is planning on raising that number.
      - marvin 10y ago
        That's a good thing, but just like Tesla, they have to build lots of battery factories to do it. Or their suppliers have to. This process is underway, but unless there are massive projects happening right now that I'm not aware of, their production will be lagging Tesla's by a wide margin.
tcoppi 10y ago
Tesla's battery costs right now(pre-gigafactory) are closer to $200/kwh, so for a 60kwh battery(gets 200mi range on the model s) that is only $12k.
- OrwellianChild 10y ago
  I'd love to see the progression of costs over the years... Would be useful for extrapolation. Where'd you get the more current figure?
  - tcoppi 10y ago
    This article is a good resource http://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/15/ev-battery-prices-looking-back-years-forward-yet/ http://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/15/ev-battery-prices-lookin...
    - OrwellianChild 10y ago
      Awesome to see market leaders like Tesla beating all possible projections (they're basically already living in 2020 on the chart at the end of the article). Given that all forecasts had prices trending downward and eventually hitting the fabled $100/Kwh rate, this bodes well for continued progress as all these large-scale production facilities extract efficiencies...
jsingleton 10y ago
The Leaf is still very popular despite the range. There are a few near me parked on the road, where there aren't even any charging points. Range anxiety will probably decrease as charging infrastructure improves, so maybe this is less of an issue than it was. In principle there are already more places you could charge an EV than fill up a liquid fuel vehicle. It might just not be very practical or require a long cable getting in the way.
- pilom 10y ago
  In principle, sure, in practice, each liquid fueling station has multiple pumps each with a throughput of 1 vehicle every 3 or so minutes. Charging stations on the other hand usually just have one or two plugs with a throughput of 30 minutes/vehicle best case and 8 hours/vehicle worst case. It isn't even close in practice.
  - kbenson 10y ago
    It's not quite that simple. Every person has a charging station at their house, almost nobody has a liquid fuel station at home. Every liquid fuel station customer is not necessarily someone that will need remote charging much of the time.
    - vkou 10y ago
      I don't have a charging station where I live. There are no power outlets in the shared garage. There are also no power outlets at any of the street parking spots my neighbors use.
      - kbenson 10y ago
        Yes, I was a bit hasty to say every person has a charging station at home. I knew there were cases where it wasn't going to be true, but wasn't thinking it would be as common as many assigned condo/apartment spaces. There are apparently laws popping up in states regarding the ability of tenants to put their own charging infrastructure[1] in place, but we would probably be better served by complexes putting in a few shared community stations (depending on size of complex). IMO, when there are more cheap electric options (maybe now?), this would be a good stimulus target. 1: http://articles.latimes.com/2013/nov/17/business/la-fi-associations-20131117 http://articles.latimes.com/2013/nov/17/business/la-fi-assoc...
lorenzhs 10y ago
Tesla states that Model 3 will achieve 215 miles of range. I think that the manufacturing section of Elon Musk's recently published master plan was partly intended to prepare investors for not turning a profit in the next few years. Quote: > A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.
- makomk 10y ago
  How much will the version of the Model 3 with 215 miles of range cost, though? I know that with the Model S, the headline price was for a heavily range-reduced version that Tesla didn't actually end up making - the handful that shipped were actually the next model up with a software restriction added.
  - tcoppi 10y ago
    According to the Model 3 announcement, the base model will have at least 215 miles of range. The Model S was never announced with any specific range for the base model afaik, it was always marketed that the 40kwh model would have low range. It didn't sell very well, which is why they ended up being software restricted 60kwh models for initial reservations and never sold it after that.
jsight 10y ago
I think their plan has it costing less than 10k. 1 kwh of cells is ~$100 USD. They will likely use a 60 Kwh pack to hit the 200 mile minimum, or possibly a little bit larger with a 220 mile range.
- mikeash 10y ago
  The current best guess is a 55kWh pack in the base Model 3. The Model S 60kWh has a 210 miles range, and the Model 3 will be smaller and should be somewhat more efficient. And yes, there is no way that the Model 3's battery pack will cost anything close to $20,000. That's more like what the Model S's pack cost originally, years ago. The Model 3's entire existence is based on the Gigafactory cutting costs by a decent multiple from that level.
steejk 10y ago
Range is not solely due to the battery pack; weight, frontal area and drag have a big impact. Nonetheless $20k is high for a 200 mile pack even today. It should be around half the cost.
xexers 10y ago
The next leaf will have the same range of ~200 miles. http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1104610_next-nissan-leaf-confirmed-for-60-kwh-battery-200-miles-of-range http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1104610_next-nissan-leaf...

maxerickson 10y ago

It's seems a little unlikely that the Leaf would see 0 progress. There's also a Bolt in the room. It's pretty likely to ship this year, with a 200 mile range and competitive price point.

tcoppi 10y ago
The Bolt is probably the closest competitor to what Tesla is doing right now for EVs. They have the range, but they still haven't figured out styling or performance, nor is the charging infrastructure as robust yet.
- forgetsusername 10y ago
  >The Bolt is probably the closest competitor to what Tesla is doing right now for EVs. The Model S is 2x the price (and 10x the car). I don't think they are competition. Or do you mean the Model 3? As of right now it's nothing but a prototype, so I'm not sure that's competition either. Theoretically it will be $30k with 200mile range, but I'm skeptical.
  - tcoppi 10y ago
    I meant the Model 3. Theoretically it will be $35k for a base model with 200 mile range, and the Bolt is also not much less theoretical than the Model 3 at this point. There are lots of reasons to be skeptical about the time frame of availability and hitting production numbers of the Model 3, but Tesla has been pretty good about hitting the raw performance and price numbers they announce.
- protomyth 10y ago
  Doesn't the Bolt use a fairly standard charging cable? I see those connectors in parking garages and grocery store parking lots.
  - tcoppi 10y ago
    There are adapters for Teslas to use basically every standardized(or otherwise) EV charging connector. No other brand has access to the long-range and fast-charging supercharger network however, which is a rather large part of the value proposition of owning a Tesla for many people, as it mostly removes the need to rent or own a vehicle for longer trips.
    - gozur88 10y ago
      But the supercharger network is woefully inadequate for the number of Model 3 vehicles they intend to produce. Either Tesla is going to have to put a whole lot of money into its supercharger network (more than they've announced, certainly), or they'll have to restrict it to Model S owners.
      - greglindahl 10y ago
        I recall (at the M3 event) that Elon said what they plan to build (2X current stalls) by the time Model 3 is released. Of course that's inadequate for future demand; it seems that they're scaling the network linearly with the number of cars sold which have access to the network.
  - NickM 10y ago
    Unfortunately, most of the public charging stations out there are pretty pointless due to their slow charging speed. Without faster charging, you can't do long-distance travel (nobody wants to stop for 4-8 hours in the middle of a road trip to recharge), so the only value they offer is for longer charging sessions while the driver is already in the area for work/shopping/etc. However, even then, you can't really rely on their availability, since it's always possible someone will already be there tying up the station for an 8-hour stretch...so they really aren't terribly useful or convenient for the vast majority of EV owners. I would argue that the only charging network out there that really makes sense is Tesla's Supercharger network: it actually charges fast enough to make road trips practical, is generally quite reliable, and typically includes at least 6-8 stalls per station to avoid congestion during peak travel times. This gives Tesla a huge competitive advantage over other EV manufacturers, and I think it'll be a long time before anyone catches up to them in this regard.
- marvin 10y ago
  The Bolt will also not be able to ship in nearly the volumes of Tesla Model 3.
  - greglindahl 10y ago
    Wikipedia has 2 sources that report that the plan is 25k-30k cars per year (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Bolt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Bolt). Now that Model 3 received so many reservations, I'd guess that GM is planning on raising that number.
    - marvin 10y ago
      That's a good thing, but just like Tesla, they have to build lots of battery factories to do it. Or their suppliers have to. This process is underway, but unless there are massive projects happening right now that I'm not aware of, their production will be lagging Tesla's by a wide margin.

tcoppi 10y ago

Tesla's battery costs right now(pre-gigafactory) are closer to $200/kwh, so for a 60kwh battery(gets 200mi range on the model s) that is only $12k.

OrwellianChild 10y ago
I'd love to see the progression of costs over the years... Would be useful for extrapolation. Where'd you get the more current figure?
- tcoppi 10y ago
  This article is a good resource http://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/15/ev-battery-prices-looking-back-years-forward-yet/ http://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/15/ev-battery-prices-lookin...
  - OrwellianChild 10y ago
    Awesome to see market leaders like Tesla beating all possible projections (they're basically already living in 2020 on the chart at the end of the article). Given that all forecasts had prices trending downward and eventually hitting the fabled $100/Kwh rate, this bodes well for continued progress as all these large-scale production facilities extract efficiencies...

jsingleton 10y ago

The Leaf is still very popular despite the range. There are a few near me parked on the road, where there aren't even any charging points. Range anxiety will probably decrease as charging infrastructure improves, so maybe this is less of an issue than it was. In principle there are already more places you could charge an EV than fill up a liquid fuel vehicle. It might just not be very practical or require a long cable getting in the way.

pilom 10y ago
In principle, sure, in practice, each liquid fueling station has multiple pumps each with a throughput of 1 vehicle every 3 or so minutes. Charging stations on the other hand usually just have one or two plugs with a throughput of 30 minutes/vehicle best case and 8 hours/vehicle worst case. It isn't even close in practice.
- kbenson 10y ago
  It's not quite that simple. Every person has a charging station at their house, almost nobody has a liquid fuel station at home. Every liquid fuel station customer is not necessarily someone that will need remote charging much of the time.
  - vkou 10y ago
    I don't have a charging station where I live. There are no power outlets in the shared garage. There are also no power outlets at any of the street parking spots my neighbors use.
    - kbenson 10y ago
      Yes, I was a bit hasty to say every person has a charging station at home. I knew there were cases where it wasn't going to be true, but wasn't thinking it would be as common as many assigned condo/apartment spaces. There are apparently laws popping up in states regarding the ability of tenants to put their own charging infrastructure[1] in place, but we would probably be better served by complexes putting in a few shared community stations (depending on size of complex). IMO, when there are more cheap electric options (maybe now?), this would be a good stimulus target. 1: http://articles.latimes.com/2013/nov/17/business/la-fi-associations-20131117 http://articles.latimes.com/2013/nov/17/business/la-fi-assoc...

lorenzhs 10y ago

Tesla states that Model 3 will achieve 215 miles of range. I think that the manufacturing section of Elon Musk's recently published master plan was partly intended to prepare investors for not turning a profit in the next few years. Quote: > A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.

makomk 10y ago
How much will the version of the Model 3 with 215 miles of range cost, though? I know that with the Model S, the headline price was for a heavily range-reduced version that Tesla didn't actually end up making - the handful that shipped were actually the next model up with a software restriction added.
- tcoppi 10y ago
  According to the Model 3 announcement, the base model will have at least 215 miles of range. The Model S was never announced with any specific range for the base model afaik, it was always marketed that the 40kwh model would have low range. It didn't sell very well, which is why they ended up being software restricted 60kwh models for initial reservations and never sold it after that.

jsight 10y ago

I think their plan has it costing less than 10k. 1 kwh of cells is ~$100 USD. They will likely use a 60 Kwh pack to hit the 200 mile minimum, or possibly a little bit larger with a 220 mile range.

mikeash 10y ago
The current best guess is a 55kWh pack in the base Model 3. The Model S 60kWh has a 210 miles range, and the Model 3 will be smaller and should be somewhat more efficient. And yes, there is no way that the Model 3's battery pack will cost anything close to $20,000. That's more like what the Model S's pack cost originally, years ago. The Model 3's entire existence is based on the Gigafactory cutting costs by a decent multiple from that level.

steejk 10y ago

Range is not solely due to the battery pack; weight, frontal area and drag have a big impact. Nonetheless $20k is high for a 200 mile pack even today. It should be around half the cost.

xexers 10y ago

The next leaf will have the same range of ~200 miles. http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1104610_next-nissan-leaf-confirmed-for-60-kwh-battery-200-miles-of-range http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1104610_next-nissan-leaf...