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While this is true, I think that what the article is trying to point out is not that climate change is worse, but that the models we have do not work in the cur
by yiyus 10y ago
While this is true, I think that what the article is trying to point out is not that climate change is worse, but that the models we have do not work in the current conditions. This is scary, because scientists have been anticipating climate change for decades, but now we know that what they anticipated was not as accurate as we thought.
If predictions from 10 years ago, let's say, had been replaced by worse predictions one or two years ago, we would still know with some certainty what will happen next. But what the article says is that everything we know is that things are getting worse than expected and we have no way to know how worse. Scary.
- NumberCruncher 10y ago>> scientists have been anticipating climate change for decades, but now we know that what they anticipated was not as accurate as we thought. It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future
- chx 10y agoAye but predictions are necessary. If there's a 4C global temperature rise that displaces 760M people. To put this into perspective, about 1M migrants in a year almost collapsed Europe's political system. We need to know how quick that happens so we can begin to do something. Dam, evacuate etc.
- adrianN 10y agoThat's the problem with modelling nonlinear systems. Your approximations work OK for small changes, but might diverge dramatically for larger deviations from the starting point. This is why we need to completely stop producing GHGs as soon as possible. The longer we wait the further we slip into unknown territory.