Good analysis, but you missed the hiding in plain sight -> hiding in general strategy. Until you're not gaunt enough from lack of food, who's to know you have

Good analysis, but you missed the hiding in plain sight -> hiding in general strategy. Until you're not gaunt enough from lack of food, who's to know you have stored a lot of grain? Water access is a much bigger issue (why aren't you out scrounging for it, showing up at the military water access points if your city is lucky enough to have some, etc.), but if no one knows you're even there in your dwelling, assuming you can store enough water, you might be able to wait it out. Ah, bigger issue there is probably a general fire forcing you out of it. In which case you're screwed, and should have bugged out long before the first mass wave of refugees.