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In the long term do people see the automobile industry as a growth industry? Will there be more cars on the road per capita in the future or less? Some trends

In the long term do people see the automobile industry as a growth industry? Will there be more cars on the road per capita in the future or less? Some trends make me think there will be less cars around in the future. The average age at which people get drivers licenses is rising for example as it is becoming easier to live without them. The car sharing network Car2Go, which one could look at as an early example of how a vast autonomous car network would work, has shown to take 11 cars off the road for each that it adds[1]. Lastly there is a renaissance in many cities right now with planners turning away from car oriented infrastructure, and more strongly focusing on pedestrians, cyclists and public transit. It seems to me that a lot of the car oriented thinking of the 1950s that resulted in the cities we see today is discredited amongst planners and they are trying to move us away from that. I wonder where Apple believes the car market share is going. Even if automobiles aren't a growth industry they may think it's worthwhile to them to try to take a good share of the luxury market. [1] http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/car2go-car-ownership-vmt-ghg/491825/ http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/07/car2go-car-ownership-...

ryanmarsh 10y ago
Yes. Cars are a growth industry. Which is kind of crazy but look at it this way. How much bigger will the global middle class be in 50 years? 100? Oh, and don't forget Africa. Lots of growth opportunity there.
- ddebernardy 10y ago
  Africa is a prime destination for second hand cars coming in from developed countries. I'm skeptical there is much growth opportunity there for car manufacturers. For the middle class, I can't help but wonder if it'll make much sense for them to actually own cars in 50-100 years if there are company-operated fleets of cheap self-driving vehicles - or at least more than one car per household. Time will tell.
  - AnAfrican 10y ago
    >Africa is a prime destination for second hand cars coming in from developed countries. I'm skeptical there is much growth opportunity there for car manufacturers. That's mostly because New Cars were unafforable to All. At least in the places I've visited there are more and more new cars. - because people are richer than a few years ago - because financing options that didn't exist now do - because laws banning imports of cars "older than x years" also help (even if they have unintended consequences)

ryanmarsh 10y ago

Yes. Cars are a growth industry. Which is kind of crazy but look at it this way. How much bigger will the global middle class be in 50 years? 100? Oh, and don't forget Africa. Lots of growth opportunity there.

ddebernardy 10y ago
Africa is a prime destination for second hand cars coming in from developed countries. I'm skeptical there is much growth opportunity there for car manufacturers. For the middle class, I can't help but wonder if it'll make much sense for them to actually own cars in 50-100 years if there are company-operated fleets of cheap self-driving vehicles - or at least more than one car per household. Time will tell.
- AnAfrican 10y ago
  >Africa is a prime destination for second hand cars coming in from developed countries. I'm skeptical there is much growth opportunity there for car manufacturers. That's mostly because New Cars were unafforable to All. At least in the places I've visited there are more and more new cars. - because people are richer than a few years ago - because financing options that didn't exist now do - because laws banning imports of cars "older than x years" also help (even if they have unintended consequences)