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In the short term I can see how an incredibly well-made car with AR tech would make people want to own them. Long term however I believe cars will just be a sh

by bluthru 10y ago

In the short term I can see how an incredibly well-made car with AR tech would make people want to own them. Long term however I believe cars will just be a shared network of autonomous vehicles for moving people and things. In other words a shared commodity with cheap rental prices versus ownership. That doesn't seem like a market for Apple. But hey, if they're investing in electric vehicles then that's better for everyone.

TillE 10y ago
I agree, but I think we're at least 25 years away from that vision being realized. That leaves Apple a couple decades to sell a really good electric car which may have some "smart" safety features, but probably zero automation.
- sounds 10y ago
  It appears the key success metric will be companies who: 1. Entered the emerging electric vehicle space with a "good enough" product that people will buy it. 2. Continuously innovate with new models. Since these are large pieces of machinery, this appears to be the money Tesla is leaving on the table by doing all their cars in-house. (maybe) 3. Autonomy. Nobody knows what this will come to mean, and lawmakers are being wary. Add to that Tesla's direct-to-consumer model stirring up the lawmakers, and autonomy may get killed by the lawyers (non-zero risk, not trying to predict the future with any certainty).
- bluthru 10y ago
  Tesla will be offering automation for (presumably) less money in 2021. I don't think Apple can afford to not have automation, nor do I think they could offer something appealing enough to overcome not having automation. If Tesla can create automation in a short amount of time, I have no doubt that a massive computer company filled with smart software engineers and a maps group can do it.
threeseed 10y ago
> Long term however I believe cars will just be a shared network of autonomous vehicles for moving people and things I doubt it. The majority of drivers on the road are your typical 9-5 commuters. For them it will still be more convenient (no need to wait for another car) and cheaper to just buy a car and there is still something intrinsic to human nature about "owning" something. People leave all manner of goods in their car. I see autonomous vehicles taking over taxis however.
- __d 10y ago
  While I agree (I have a bunch of stuff in my car), I think it's important to consider cities like New York: where there's substantial cost or effort required to own a car, people are content to use alternatives (cabs, Uber, subway, Citibike, etc). If the alternative is readily available (ie. on-demand automated vehicles), I think the maintenance expense reductions and capital redeployment possible by automating transport will motivate law-makers to increasingly penalize private car use. If you have to pay an extra $5000/year for a private vehicle permit, a lot of people will switch.
- whatusername 10y ago
  9-5 commute? Sign me up for an autonomous car. The family wagon with 2 child seats, pram, toys, nappies, etc... That one makes sense to own.
  - supercoder 10y ago
    Yeah I'd have gone full Uber and ditched the car if it wasn't for having kids that need seats.
- bluthru 10y ago
  >The majority of drivers on the road are your typical 9-5 commuters. And a car will automatically be at their house every morning. The car will fill up with people on the same route for cost savings.
  - ams6110 10y ago
visarga 10y ago
> I believe cars will just be a shared network of autonomous vehicles for moving people and things People will leave food, garbage and even used condoms in these cars. They will have to be cleaned up between every ride. It's not going to be easy.
- bluthru 10y ago
  That sounds like a much easier problem than autonomous vehicles.
  - B1FF_PSUVM 10y ago
    We could ask the aviation guys, they also have autopilot and cabin cleaning crews ...
    - bluthru 10y ago
      Airlines have a very short amount of time to clean many seats. In the short term, electric cars will take a while to charge and cleaning can be done then.
- pmontra 10y ago
  I've been using car sharing services for about two years and that doesn't happen. The companies know who used the car and they have their credit card. A customer can report for damages and cleanliness and if the car you pick is not OK you do report, to demonstrate it's not your fault. The worst I found is a half filled plastic water bottle.

by bluthru 10y ago

TillE 10y ago

I agree, but I think we're at least 25 years away from that vision being realized. That leaves Apple a couple decades to sell a really good electric car which may have some "smart" safety features, but probably zero automation.

sounds 10y ago
It appears the key success metric will be companies who: 1. Entered the emerging electric vehicle space with a "good enough" product that people will buy it. 2. Continuously innovate with new models. Since these are large pieces of machinery, this appears to be the money Tesla is leaving on the table by doing all their cars in-house. (maybe) 3. Autonomy. Nobody knows what this will come to mean, and lawmakers are being wary. Add to that Tesla's direct-to-consumer model stirring up the lawmakers, and autonomy may get killed by the lawyers (non-zero risk, not trying to predict the future with any certainty).
bluthru 10y ago
Tesla will be offering automation for (presumably) less money in 2021. I don't think Apple can afford to not have automation, nor do I think they could offer something appealing enough to overcome not having automation. If Tesla can create automation in a short amount of time, I have no doubt that a massive computer company filled with smart software engineers and a maps group can do it.

threeseed 10y ago

> Long term however I believe cars will just be a shared network of autonomous vehicles for moving people and things I doubt it. The majority of drivers on the road are your typical 9-5 commuters. For them it will still be more convenient (no need to wait for another car) and cheaper to just buy a car and there is still something intrinsic to human nature about "owning" something. People leave all manner of goods in their car. I see autonomous vehicles taking over taxis however.

__d 10y ago
While I agree (I have a bunch of stuff in my car), I think it's important to consider cities like New York: where there's substantial cost or effort required to own a car, people are content to use alternatives (cabs, Uber, subway, Citibike, etc). If the alternative is readily available (ie. on-demand automated vehicles), I think the maintenance expense reductions and capital redeployment possible by automating transport will motivate law-makers to increasingly penalize private car use. If you have to pay an extra $5000/year for a private vehicle permit, a lot of people will switch.
whatusername 10y ago
9-5 commute? Sign me up for an autonomous car. The family wagon with 2 child seats, pram, toys, nappies, etc... That one makes sense to own.
- supercoder 10y ago
  Yeah I'd have gone full Uber and ditched the car if it wasn't for having kids that need seats.
bluthru 10y ago
>The majority of drivers on the road are your typical 9-5 commuters. And a car will automatically be at their house every morning. The car will fill up with people on the same route for cost savings.
- ams6110 10y ago

visarga 10y ago

> I believe cars will just be a shared network of autonomous vehicles for moving people and things People will leave food, garbage and even used condoms in these cars. They will have to be cleaned up between every ride. It's not going to be easy.

bluthru 10y ago
That sounds like a much easier problem than autonomous vehicles.
- B1FF_PSUVM 10y ago
  We could ask the aviation guys, they also have autopilot and cabin cleaning crews ...
  - bluthru 10y ago
    Airlines have a very short amount of time to clean many seats. In the short term, electric cars will take a while to charge and cleaning can be done then.
pmontra 10y ago
I've been using car sharing services for about two years and that doesn't happen. The companies know who used the car and they have their credit card. A customer can report for damages and cleanliness and if the car you pick is not OK you do report, to demonstrate it's not your fault. The worst I found is a half filled plastic water bottle.