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http://news.berkeley.edu/2014/03/18/fierce-solar-magnetic-storm-barely-missed-earth-in-2012/ http://news.berkeley.edu/2014/03/18/fierce-solar-magnetic-st... >

http://news.berkeley.edu/2014/03/18/fierce-solar-magnetic-storm-barely-missed-earth-in-2012/ http://news.berkeley.edu/2014/03/18/fierce-solar-magnetic-st... > A study last year estimated that the cost of a solar storm like the Carrington Event could reach $2.6 trillion worldwide. A considerably smaller event on March 13, 1989, led to the collapse of Canada’s Hydro-Quebec power grid and a resulting loss of electricity to six million people for up to nine hours. Its not going to kill alot of people. It is going to knock out the power for a few hours.

Alex3917 10y ago
Not accurate. From the actual report you're citing: "The total U.S. population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between 20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years. The duration of outages will depend largely on the availability of spare replacement transformers. If new transformers need to be ordered, the lead-time is likely to be a minimum of five months. The total economic cost for such a scenario is estimated at $0.6-2.6 trillion USD." And if you look at the appendix: "The economic costs of the outage scenarios are estimated by calculating the percentage of residential, commercial, and industrial customers without power by state and using the average amount of electricity consumed by each segment in each state per hour. The total amount of electricity "lost" for each sector in each state is then the product of these items." In other words, 0.6 - 2.6 trillion isn't the economic cost of the power outage, it's the amount of money the electric utilities would lose on sales during at extended downtime.
- xenadu02 10y ago
  There's always an unstated premise: "assuming all else is equal". In a disaster scenario it won't be business as usual. In a true emergency scenario a transformer plant can be operated 24/7 with rotating crews. It wouldn't take 5 months to get new transformers.
  - Retric 10y ago
    Exactly transformers are really simple things, a bucket of mineral oil, cable, and a core can be assembled in a few hours. It's not going to last for 50 years like that, but needs must.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]

Alex3917 10y ago

Not accurate. From the actual report you're citing: "The total U.S. population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between 20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years. The duration of outages will depend largely on the availability of spare replacement transformers. If new transformers need to be ordered, the lead-time is likely to be a minimum of five months. The total economic cost for such a scenario is estimated at $0.6-2.6 trillion USD." And if you look at the appendix: "The economic costs of the outage scenarios are estimated by calculating the percentage of residential, commercial, and industrial customers without power by state and using the average amount of electricity consumed by each segment in each state per hour. The total amount of electricity "lost" for each sector in each state is then the product of these items." In other words, 0.6 - 2.6 trillion isn't the economic cost of the power outage, it's the amount of money the electric utilities would lose on sales during at extended downtime.

xenadu02 10y ago
There's always an unstated premise: "assuming all else is equal". In a disaster scenario it won't be business as usual. In a true emergency scenario a transformer plant can be operated 24/7 with rotating crews. It wouldn't take 5 months to get new transformers.
- Retric 10y ago
  Exactly transformers are really simple things, a bucket of mineral oil, cable, and a core can be assembled in a few hours. It's not going to last for 50 years like that, but needs must.
deleted 10y ago
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