Since Apple is most likely to make money off AppleCare, it means that it's probably not worth it. If there's a 50% chance your MacBook breaks and it's worth $10

Since Apple is most likely to make money off AppleCare, it means that it's probably not worth it. If there's a 50% chance your MacBook breaks and it's worth $1000 you're worse off when you insure it if your insurance premium is above $500. The AppleCare premium includes their profit and is thus above the expected value. Do note, this only applies to goods where you have the means to buy a replacement. If you can't afford a new MacBook (and need one to make a living), insure it. Health care as well, the odds of contracting a serious illness in your twenties are pretty slim but you better insure against it because you can't pay for it if you do get ill. In a similar fashion governments don't need to insure their buildings against fires. They have the means to rebuild, insuring would cost more.