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A "concrete sign" in the form a a virtual graph showing some obscure figure (PMI or purchasing managers index) produced by some obscure group (Markit) has dropp

• CarolineW 10y ago
  > ... some obscure group (Markit) ... Looking up Wikipedia[0]: Markit Ltd. is a global, financial information and services company with over 4,000 employees, founded in 2003 as independent source of credit derivative pricing. Revenue US$ $1.5 billion Scarcely a fly-by-night "unknown" group. Further, the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS) seems to agree with them. This was reported in the press: The abrupt and large fall in both orders and output reported by IHS Markit and the CIPS clearly makes a recession in the second half of 2016 a real risk. Similar results for August and September would suggest a 0.4% contraction in the economy in the third quarter. It only takes two successive quarters of contraction to constitute a technical recession. [1] Further, these "flash PMI readings" have been used for decades and are generally regarded as good indicators, albeit possible that they are just blips and may need revision. However, it's really not looking good. I personally know of lucrative contracts that have been cancelled, terminated, or delayed. By all means feel free to regard all this as scare-mongering, but don't hold that attitude by default way past the point where the trend becomes obvious. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markit [1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/22/post-brexit-economy-may-actually-be-worse-than-markits-survey-suggests https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/22/post-brexit...