4 ms·
I don't think we disagree. Mind bearing with me for a moment? Probability of A (round 1 / selecting the right urn): 1 / 2^32 (32 games, 2 possible winners for
by qeorge 17y ago
I don't think we disagree. Mind bearing with me for a moment?
Probability of A (round 1 / selecting the right urn):
1 / 2^32 (32 games, 2 possible winners for each)
Probability of B (round 2:
1 / 4^16 (16 games, 4 possible winners for each)
Probability of A and B:
(1 / 2^32) * (1 / 4^16)
So it would appear the chain rule for probability agrees with my point. What am I missing?
- irq11 17y agoYour second term is wrong. There are 16 matches in the second round, and you have a 1/2 chance of picking the winner in each, not a 1/4 chance. The first term (.5^32) is the probability of picking all of the winners in round one (p(A)). The second term (p(B|A)), must be the probability of picking all the winners in round two, given that you picked correctly in round one. Again, that's .5^16, not .25^16.
- qeorge 17y agoYou're right, thanks for explaining it. I still couldn't see it this morning, but I talked it out with my co-founder, and he got through to me. Thanks for sticking with it.