> ...but doesn't throw it's hands up in the air and say estimation is impossible. It is impossible to know for sure. It's a bet. It's also impossible to say pr

> ...but doesn't throw it's hands up in the air and say estimation is impossible. It is impossible to know for sure. It's a bet. It's also impossible to say precisely what the DOW will be at next Thursday. But you can make a guess with confidence intervals, long or short the appropriate index, and make some money. The problem is that "real business" people want impossibly precise estimates for software projects in particular. If software estimates were more like medical prognoses or financial reports, they would include confidence intervals and risk assessments, and we would be having another conversation.