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Evolution. 100,000 years ago, there were humans who could accurately estimate the difficulty of, say, catching a deer. And since they knew it was too much troub
by paulsutter 10y ago
Evolution. 100,000 years ago, there were humans who could accurately estimate the difficulty of, say, catching a deer. And since they knew it was too much trouble, they just stayed home in the cave.
Meanwhile some crazy optimist went out and to catch a deer. It was many times more difficult than expected, but they returned to the cave with the deer and eventually reproduced more successfully than the accurate estimator.
Thus our ancestors were the crazy optimists.
- pliny 10y agoOr the estimators only hunted deer when they were well positioned to do so (e.g. few predators of humans and many deer around), and the optimists were eaten by bears.
- zby 10y agoThat does not make sense. If eventually it turned out that it was worth it, then their estimate - i.e. 'it is worth it' was accurate - not too optimistic.
- smallnamespace 10y ago> And since they knew it was too much trouble More trouble than starving?
- redler 10y agoAnother way to look at this is that the crazy optimists who are the worst estimators never return (themselves eaten by predators, run out of water, hypothermia) or return empty handed, lowering their reproductive success. The optimists who succeed quickly adjust their understanding of the estimating process ("Zog died when he went after deer at night during winter, and I barely survived being attacked by wolves when the deer were most plentiful, so I should go on cool midday hunts when the deer are already slightly down in population").
- Rexxar 10y agoThat's the one who has domesticated the cows instead of hunting it who has win.
- ryanmarsh 10y agoOr the ones that stayed back and saved their energy to kill the weakend hunter and take the meat.