Thanks for the helpful response. I still don't think I got quite the question across that I meant though. It wasn't so much the probability model (independent

Thanks for the helpful response. I still don't think I got quite the question across that I meant though. It wasn't so much the probability model (independent or otherwise) I intended to question (hence my very poor choice of the die rolling analogy), but the choice of describing an event as 'overdue'. At the risk of introducing another down-voted analogy, presumably hurricanes have a probability of occurring based on things like ocean temperature, time of year etc., but I don't think I've ever heard the phrase 'the east coast of the US is overdue a hurricane'.