4 ms·

I meant in the sense of probability, not literally like dice :)

tlrobinson 10y ago
Well yes, pretty much any naturally occurring process involves some probability...
maldeh 10y ago
It essentially comes down to whether you assume that the probability of an earthquake every subsequent year is independent of the result in previous years. The notion of tectonic pressure build-up suggests that that assumption isn't true. The author has a reasonable idea in applying survival analysis to estimate the probability without making any assumptions about the underlying model.
pc86 10y ago
I think it was clear what you meant. If you roll a dice 10 times and don't get a six, the probability of rolling a six is still 1/6 for the next roll. However, as the time since the last earthquake increases, not only does the probability of one increase (unlike dice which has a constant probability) but also the likely magnitude of it increases as well. The equivalent with dice would be you roll a non-six 10 times in a row, and instead of 1/6 probability of rolling a six, you now have a 1/3 probability of rolling a six and a 1/100 probability of setting off a nuclear explosion.
- marcosscriven 10y ago
  Thanks for the helpful response. I still don't think I got quite the question across that I meant though. It wasn't so much the probability model (independent or otherwise) I intended to question (hence my very poor choice of the die rolling analogy), but the choice of describing an event as 'overdue'. At the risk of introducing another down-voted analogy, presumably hurricanes have a probability of occurring based on things like ocean temperature, time of year etc., but I don't think I've ever heard the phrase 'the east coast of the US is overdue a hurricane'.
  - mercer 10y ago
    The term 'overdue' is used because, as earlier posters explained, the probability of an earthquake actually increases the longer that it doesn't happen. But it comes to hurricanes, I suppose the probability of them occurring does not increase if they don't happen (or we just don't know), and that's why we (generally) don't use the term overdue.

Well yes, pretty much any naturally occurring process involves some probability...

It essentially comes down to whether you assume that the probability of an earthquake every subsequent year is independent of the result in previous years. The notion of tectonic pressure build-up suggests that that assumption isn't true. The author has a reasonable idea in applying survival analysis to estimate the probability without making any assumptions about the underlying model.

pc86 10y ago

I think it was clear what you meant. If you roll a dice 10 times and don't get a six, the probability of rolling a six is still 1/6 for the next roll. However, as the time since the last earthquake increases, not only does the probability of one increase (unlike dice which has a constant probability) but also the likely magnitude of it increases as well. The equivalent with dice would be you roll a non-six 10 times in a row, and instead of 1/6 probability of rolling a six, you now have a 1/3 probability of rolling a six and a 1/100 probability of setting off a nuclear explosion.

marcosscriven 10y ago
Thanks for the helpful response. I still don't think I got quite the question across that I meant though. It wasn't so much the probability model (independent or otherwise) I intended to question (hence my very poor choice of the die rolling analogy), but the choice of describing an event as 'overdue'. At the risk of introducing another down-voted analogy, presumably hurricanes have a probability of occurring based on things like ocean temperature, time of year etc., but I don't think I've ever heard the phrase 'the east coast of the US is overdue a hurricane'.
- mercer 10y ago
  The term 'overdue' is used because, as earlier posters explained, the probability of an earthquake actually increases the longer that it doesn't happen. But it comes to hurricanes, I suppose the probability of them occurring does not increase if they don't happen (or we just don't know), and that's why we (generally) don't use the term overdue.