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My understanding is that the probability and expected magnitude of an earthquake actually increases over time as tectonic tension builds. So no, not like dice.
by gradys 10y ago
My understanding is that the probability and expected magnitude of an earthquake actually increases over time as tectonic tension builds. So no, not like dice.
- marcosscriven 10y agoI meant in the sense of probability, not literally like dice :)
- tlrobinson 10y agoWell yes, pretty much any naturally occurring process involves some probability...
- maldeh 10y agoIt essentially comes down to whether you assume that the probability of an earthquake every subsequent year is independent of the result in previous years. The notion of tectonic pressure build-up suggests that that assumption isn't true. The author has a reasonable idea in applying survival analysis to estimate the probability without making any assumptions about the underlying model.
- pc86 10y agoI think it was clear what you meant. If you roll a dice 10 times and don't get a six, the probability of rolling a six is still 1/6 for the next roll. However, as the time since the last earthquake increases, not only does the probability of one increase (unlike dice which has a constant probability) but also the likely magnitude of it increases as well. The equivalent with dice would be you roll a non-six 10 times in a row, and instead of 1/6 probability of rolling a six, you now have a 1/3 probability of rolling a six and a 1/100 probability of setting off a nuclear explosion.
- marcosscriven 10y agoThanks for the helpful response. I still don't think I got quite the question across that I meant though. It wasn't so much the probability model (independent or otherwise) I intended to question (hence my very poor choice of the die rolling analogy), but the choice of describing an event as 'overdue'. At the risk of introducing another down-voted analogy, presumably hurricanes have a probability of occurring based on things like ocean temperature, time of year etc., but I don't think I've ever heard the phrase 'the east coast of the US is overdue a hurricane'.
- mercer 10y agoThe term 'overdue' is used because, as earlier posters explained, the probability of an earthquake actually increases the longer that it doesn't happen. But it comes to hurricanes, I suppose the probability of them occurring does not increase if they don't happen (or we just don't know), and that's why we (generally) don't use the term overdue.
- otempomores 10y agoIs there a way to milk tectonic tension?
- quantumhobbit 10y agoWell yes, you can with more earthquakes. Theoretically assuming the build up of tension energy is constant, you could trade many smaller earthquakes for a big one. Ex 30 mag 6's instead of a mag 7 to get the same amount of energy released. Whether that is a good idea or not is debateble. Practically we have no control over earthquakes (except maybe with fracking) and no way to really forecast them.
- pjungwir 10y agoIt does seem like tectonic pressure could be a great source of clean, renewable energy! :-) Maybe some day in the future there will be no earthquakes because we'll have a way of pulling out the energy gradually and putting it to use. Another idea I wish would work is getting energy from lightning strikes. I guess it's not practical, but if it could work, "powered by lightning" sure would sound awesome. :-)