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For anyone who has a theory that involves making new jobs and retraining people, consider these cases: A) 50 something factory worker whos job along with the o

For anyone who has a theory that involves making new jobs and retraining people, consider these cases: A) 50 something factory worker whos job along with the other 100 folks he works with, have been eliminated by automation or some other sort of efficiency. B) 30 something software engineer who's field (except for research) has been eliminated by AI. "A" is something most of us have the luxury of had waving away with "retrain them to be surgeons and leave their homes behind and move to someplace else for work". "B" hasn't happened (yet) but what would you do if it does? It's not so easy easy to dismiss is it? Lack of work is a structural problem. The landed gentry of our time don't even need the surfs anymore so it's even worse in some ways.

bduerst 10y ago
Considering the amount of data it takes to train an A.I., there isn't much threat to it taking human related jobs quickly, even less so in emerging industries. You could hand wave about 10 years from now all the software jobs are replaced by A.I., but there will be entirely new industries in place that we can't really conceive of right now. Case in point: Imagine if someone told you in 2006, that there would be a $70 Billion mobile app industry consumed by over a billion people worldwide, using some fantastic new device that's only vaguely similar to the flip phone in your hand.
gscott 10y ago
It is also a location problem. If you have bought a house but can't sell easily or don't want to move then you can't go to a place in the United States that has more jobs. For example right now in Grand Forks ND there are walmart jobs $14-$18 an hour and apartments for super cheap (with electricity included) for $450 and up.
- falcolas 10y ago
  As someone who lived in Grand Forks... I would rather do the same job for $7 an hour just about anywhere else. The weather, floods, wind, and lack of anything to do around there make it a very un-desirable place to live.
bagacrap 10y ago
Well if AI can replace software engineers then it can probably obviate many other jobs as well, meaning there would have to be greater societal restructuring than just some out of work engineers finding new careers. If you are 30 and you're worried your job will be automated away before you retire (but before universal income), perhaps you should get a head start by learning new skills that are harder to automate. I wonder what your alternate theory that fixes the unemployed 50 something factory worker is? Legislation that ensures job security? Pension? Severance?
- toomuchtodo 10y ago
  > Pension? Severance? Yes, funded by a tax on automation revenues.
- dscalisi 10y ago
  Which skills, for example, are harder to automate? You may have already seen this YouTube video as its a couple years old, but its premise is that we need to start thinking about what to do when large swaths of the population find themselves unemployable through no fault of their own (since over 45% of the workforce holds jobs that are easy targets for automation in the near future). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&app=desktop https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&app=desktop
bballer 10y ago
"surfs" -> "serfs" Nitpicking I know.
- chrisbennet 10y ago
  Thanks!

bduerst 10y ago

Considering the amount of data it takes to train an A.I., there isn't much threat to it taking human related jobs quickly, even less so in emerging industries. You could hand wave about 10 years from now all the software jobs are replaced by A.I., but there will be entirely new industries in place that we can't really conceive of right now. Case in point: Imagine if someone told you in 2006, that there would be a $70 Billion mobile app industry consumed by over a billion people worldwide, using some fantastic new device that's only vaguely similar to the flip phone in your hand.

gscott 10y ago

It is also a location problem. If you have bought a house but can't sell easily or don't want to move then you can't go to a place in the United States that has more jobs. For example right now in Grand Forks ND there are walmart jobs $14-$18 an hour and apartments for super cheap (with electricity included) for $450 and up.

falcolas 10y ago
As someone who lived in Grand Forks... I would rather do the same job for $7 an hour just about anywhere else. The weather, floods, wind, and lack of anything to do around there make it a very un-desirable place to live.

bagacrap 10y ago

Well if AI can replace software engineers then it can probably obviate many other jobs as well, meaning there would have to be greater societal restructuring than just some out of work engineers finding new careers. If you are 30 and you're worried your job will be automated away before you retire (but before universal income), perhaps you should get a head start by learning new skills that are harder to automate. I wonder what your alternate theory that fixes the unemployed 50 something factory worker is? Legislation that ensures job security? Pension? Severance?

toomuchtodo 10y ago
> Pension? Severance? Yes, funded by a tax on automation revenues.
dscalisi 10y ago
Which skills, for example, are harder to automate? You may have already seen this YouTube video as its a couple years old, but its premise is that we need to start thinking about what to do when large swaths of the population find themselves unemployable through no fault of their own (since over 45% of the workforce holds jobs that are easy targets for automation in the near future). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&app=desktop https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&app=desktop

bballer 10y ago

"surfs" -> "serfs" Nitpicking I know.

chrisbennet 10y ago
Thanks!