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I would be careful with any blanket prediction. China has a lot of question marks, really I think more question marks than at the turn of the century. In addit
by soundwave106 10y ago
I would be careful with any blanket prediction.
China has a lot of question marks, really I think more question marks than at the turn of the century. In addition to the size of the debt mentioned earlier (much of it in state owned corporate enterprises, their often over-bloated nature often cited as a problem in itself), you have a market system that is somewhat undeveloped and subject to excessive government meddling (see China's stock exchanges and managed floating currency), constrained future growth due to future demographics (eg: an aging society with no "demographic dividend", a situation no doubt not helped by the previous one child policy), and problems with pollution and corruption that -- as Chinese society gets richer -- they are starting to get annoyed by more and more.
None of these mean that China is on the road to ruin, of course, and without a doubt China will continue to play a large role in the world economy in the future. However, I do think that how the Chinese government handles some of their financial system decisions will determine whether your prediction on finance infrastructure holds true. At present, I would not consider the Chinese financial system mature or stable enough to overtake Western ones, and I think the Chinese government has to make some hard decisions before that happens.