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I think the fundamental error here is assuming the existing car ownership model. I think the future is autonomous taxis (or Ubers). This actually reduces conges

I think the fundamental error here is assuming the existing car ownership model. I think the future is autonomous taxis (or Ubers). This actually reduces congestion, eliminates the need for parking, and plays to the strengths of electric vehicles. Building a master plan based on families owning cars is, I think, skating to where the puck was ten years ago (car ownership is dropping in the Western world, especially among the young).

eridius 10y ago
If you send out your car to ferry other people for money when you don't need it (as the master plan suggests) then you get the same benefits.
- Tloewald 10y ago
  Except you need to worry about maintenance, insurance, etc. and you may not be able to use the car when you need it. Why bother?
  - eridius 10y ago
    There's tradeoffs everywhere. Sure, if your car is out giving someone else a ride, it can't give you one either. But most of the time when you get in your car, you know ahead of time that you're going to do that, so it's pretty easy to tell your car to become available when you need it. And the benefits to owning it include having it available exactly when you need it (instead of having to call a car and stand around waiting for it to come pick you up), having it be able to sit around on standby for if you don't know if you're going to need it or not, or personalization of your car, etc. Similarly, if you're regularly driving longer distances than just hopping around San Francisco, it's probably more cost-effective to own a car than to use Uber. And once you go outside of major metropolitan areas there's a lot less coverage by ridesharing services, and it's reasonable to expect there to still be low coverage by Uber-owned autonomous vehicles.
mvdwoord 10y ago
This only works in well connected/urban areas though. Waiting for 15 minutes or longer whenever you need to get somewhere is not acceptable for a lot of people. Also, cars act as mobile lockers for your stuff. Etc. Autonomous taxi's will supplement the car owner model, but that model in and of itself is not going anywhere. Don't underestimate the aversion people have for "public" transport, many people I know bend over backwards to not use a shared form of transportation.
- Tloewald 10y ago
  Solar powered cars are only working well in Urban areas, and they don't make economic sense, they're simply a form of guilt-free conspicuous consumption. There will definitely be people who need their own vehicles, but typical families (and typical families live in urban or suburban areas) won't.
sandstrom 10y ago
They still need to sell cars for the next couple of years. When they've mentioned autonomy and removing the steering-wheel (some) people get upset because they want a car they can drive themselves. So if they tout the idea of people not owning cars too much that is will only antagonize people in the short term. If the ownership model changes they can easily adapt. I think they are very aware of the car ownership statistics and how cars being shared is a fundamentally better model in most cases.
- Tloewald 10y ago
  If the basis of your model is ramping up to major production levels at a loss to sell things people won't need once you're ramped up, I think you have a problem.

eridius 10y ago

If you send out your car to ferry other people for money when you don't need it (as the master plan suggests) then you get the same benefits.

Tloewald 10y ago
Except you need to worry about maintenance, insurance, etc. and you may not be able to use the car when you need it. Why bother?
- eridius 10y ago
  There's tradeoffs everywhere. Sure, if your car is out giving someone else a ride, it can't give you one either. But most of the time when you get in your car, you know ahead of time that you're going to do that, so it's pretty easy to tell your car to become available when you need it. And the benefits to owning it include having it available exactly when you need it (instead of having to call a car and stand around waiting for it to come pick you up), having it be able to sit around on standby for if you don't know if you're going to need it or not, or personalization of your car, etc. Similarly, if you're regularly driving longer distances than just hopping around San Francisco, it's probably more cost-effective to own a car than to use Uber. And once you go outside of major metropolitan areas there's a lot less coverage by ridesharing services, and it's reasonable to expect there to still be low coverage by Uber-owned autonomous vehicles.

mvdwoord 10y ago

This only works in well connected/urban areas though. Waiting for 15 minutes or longer whenever you need to get somewhere is not acceptable for a lot of people. Also, cars act as mobile lockers for your stuff. Etc. Autonomous taxi's will supplement the car owner model, but that model in and of itself is not going anywhere. Don't underestimate the aversion people have for "public" transport, many people I know bend over backwards to not use a shared form of transportation.

Tloewald 10y ago
Solar powered cars are only working well in Urban areas, and they don't make economic sense, they're simply a form of guilt-free conspicuous consumption. There will definitely be people who need their own vehicles, but typical families (and typical families live in urban or suburban areas) won't.

sandstrom 10y ago

They still need to sell cars for the next couple of years. When they've mentioned autonomy and removing the steering-wheel (some) people get upset because they want a car they can drive themselves. So if they tout the idea of people not owning cars too much that is will only antagonize people in the short term. If the ownership model changes they can easily adapt. I think they are very aware of the car ownership statistics and how cars being shared is a fundamentally better model in most cases.

Tloewald 10y ago
If the basis of your model is ramping up to major production levels at a loss to sell things people won't need once you're ramped up, I think you have a problem.