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Whoa, for a minute I thought this was a 2010 "Death of the PC" article, because the arguments are at times almost verbatim. In my opinion, this is not "peak-sm

Whoa, for a minute I thought this was a 2010 "Death of the PC" article, because the arguments are at times almost verbatim. In my opinion, this is not "peak-smartphone" in the way it is "peak-PC". PC growth slowed because people were buying/using Smartphones instead. Smartphone growth (especially iPhone growth) has slowed because the high penetration rate among those who could afford a smartphone. However, nothing is replacing smartphones at the moment.

dogma1138 10y ago
Also from 2008, 2007, 2005, 2003 etc. Every time there is a rush to the good ol' terminal - big computer days people remember that we aren't connected 24/7 and cloud applications work best in the conditions where having a big box under your desk isn't an inconvenience. Considering that "smartphones" (or any other similar device) is used often when there is no effective connectivity, and even when there is one you usually pay a higher penalty for using that connectivity as far as your battery life goes than using the onboard processing power - this is because the presentation layer costs just the same, your hardware power consumption (screen, sensors, audio, memory etc.) are almost the same, and the CPU is often more power efficient than your radio even at pretty intensive tasks.
- steveax 10y ago
  And 1996, remember the JavaStation? http://www.cnet.com/news/sun-gets-tough-with-javastation/ http://www.cnet.com/news/sun-gets-tough-with-javastation/
jackmaney 10y ago
PC growth also slowed because, in general, hardware upgrades aren't needed as frequently as they used to.
- elgabogringo 10y ago
  The move to the cloud is a big factor here too. I now generally judge a machine based on how many browser tabs I can have open at a time while still getting good performance.
hammock 10y ago
>However, nothing is replacing smartphones at the moment. Could it be wearables?
- elgabogringo 10y ago
  Not yet. I worked on some strategic initiatives in this space and - for consumers - wearables at this point are at best complimentary. What the big dogs (AMZN/GOOG/MSFT) seem to be pushing for consumers now isn't wearables as much as voice accessed AI assistants like Alexa.
  - hammock 10y ago
    Yes that's the other option I considered, after I had already written my comment. Imagine an omnipresent voice assistant/AI that you can summon from anywhere (home, office, business) and which projects things on whatever screen you happen to be looking at at the moment (as judged by eye tracking or gestures). No personal device needed!

dogma1138 10y ago

Also from 2008, 2007, 2005, 2003 etc. Every time there is a rush to the good ol' terminal - big computer days people remember that we aren't connected 24/7 and cloud applications work best in the conditions where having a big box under your desk isn't an inconvenience. Considering that "smartphones" (or any other similar device) is used often when there is no effective connectivity, and even when there is one you usually pay a higher penalty for using that connectivity as far as your battery life goes than using the onboard processing power - this is because the presentation layer costs just the same, your hardware power consumption (screen, sensors, audio, memory etc.) are almost the same, and the CPU is often more power efficient than your radio even at pretty intensive tasks.

steveax 10y ago
And 1996, remember the JavaStation? http://www.cnet.com/news/sun-gets-tough-with-javastation/ http://www.cnet.com/news/sun-gets-tough-with-javastation/

jackmaney 10y ago

PC growth also slowed because, in general, hardware upgrades aren't needed as frequently as they used to.

elgabogringo 10y ago
The move to the cloud is a big factor here too. I now generally judge a machine based on how many browser tabs I can have open at a time while still getting good performance.

hammock 10y ago

>However, nothing is replacing smartphones at the moment. Could it be wearables?

elgabogringo 10y ago
Not yet. I worked on some strategic initiatives in this space and - for consumers - wearables at this point are at best complimentary. What the big dogs (AMZN/GOOG/MSFT) seem to be pushing for consumers now isn't wearables as much as voice accessed AI assistants like Alexa.
- hammock 10y ago
  Yes that's the other option I considered, after I had already written my comment. Imagine an omnipresent voice assistant/AI that you can summon from anywhere (home, office, business) and which projects things on whatever screen you happen to be looking at at the moment (as judged by eye tracking or gestures). No personal device needed!