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Turkey is strategically valuable enough that I doubt much is going to change on a macro scale. Both sides will be cranky at each other for awhile, deals will be
by bovermyer 10y ago
Turkey is strategically valuable enough that I doubt much is going to change on a macro scale. Both sides will be cranky at each other for awhile, deals will be made, and everything will more or less go back to "normal."
It's like how no one is willing to take care of the North Korea problem because leaving it alone is less of a headache than the alternative.
- ryanackley 10y agoI don't agree. When Turkey (unapologetically) shot down the Russian jet it put a serious strain on relations with the USA because they are a NATO member. It's like when the biggest kid on the playground has your back but you go around getting yourself in trouble constantly. I think this is the latest in a successive displays of megolomania by Erdogan. The public perception of Turkey has shifted.
- acjohnson55 10y agoWhat would taking care of the North Korea problem look like? Land invasion? We did that; it ended in a stalemate, and the circumstances of that result haven't really changed. Turkey should be concerned about whether its strategic value still exists as such. We could probably live without them in the post-Soviet world. They are certainly extremely useful to have in the fold, but Erdoğan should take care not to assume they're indispensable.
- argonaut 10y agoErrr... The US was fighting China in the Korean War. And the US military was not yet the undisputed global military superpower it is today. A land invasion of North Korea would almost certainly be successful, the casualties and cost is the unacceptable part.
- pluma 10y agoDepends on how you define success. Officially Afghanistan and Iraq were successes, but the messy "post-war" situation in Iraq was a major factor to the strength of ISIS. Modern warfare really seems to be less about the actual war and more about post-war occupation.
- argonaut 10y agoI meant actual success, obviously. North Korea is culturally homogenous, and culturally similar to South Korea. There is no comparison to Afghanistan and Iraq. It also goes without saying that if America was willing to fully occupy Iraq for a few more decades, I'm completely confident Iraq would be stable - the cost is ridiculously prohibitive, however.