7 ms·

For the last few years most programmers I know have thought everything has a technical (app-based) solution. But those easy wins are gone now. This is the next

by estefan 10y ago

For the last few years most programmers I know have thought everything has a technical (app-based) solution. But those easy wins are gone now. This is the next trend in tech - upending existing industries by using tech to drive efficiencies. Start looking for "real stuff" you can improve with tech, rather than just software/apps that're hard to defend.

adrianN 10y ago
> upending existing industries by using tech to drive efficiencies aka what technological progress has been doing since the very beginning.
- estefan 10y ago
  Not really. It's hard to see what industries twitter, tinder, instagram, etc. have been upending.
  - onion2k 10y ago
    Communication, dating, and photo-sharing respectively. None of those businesses were the first to offer solutions to those problems. They're all incremental improvements to what was there before.
    - amirmc 10y ago
      I wouldn't say any of those businesses have upended the markets they're in, nor driven 'efficiency' (what's 'efficiency' in terms of dating, anyway?). From your comment, it seems you'd agree ('incremental improvements').
      - traviscj 10y ago
        Agree with your overall point but I think the efficiency Tinder is trying to increase is pretty self-evident.
alaskamiller 10y ago
That's a web 2.0 mentality. In the dot-com days most programmers thought everything had a computer solution. With the big jump with people learning to code and being able to build stuff themselves that they started looking and finding opportunities. Back then it was only a few million eyes and few hundred thousand with millions, now a days it's a few hundred million eyes and $100. It'll only get worse with inflation. You have to compete 1.5x harder than 20 years before to keep up, so really you have to compete 2x harder to be ahead. Looking for "real stuff" to improve with tech is so 2014, when everyone was pitching the Uber for X or Birchbox for X. Here's a fun thought experiment: with "real stuff" comes real unit economics, meaning without magical exponential growth of low marginal costs of software to pad $250k comp packs for developers that means software developers and engineers in the middle are going to see their comp package normalize then drop.
- wtetzner 10y ago
  I don't think "real stuff" has to be physical things. I think Turbo Tax would count as software that aims to improve "real stuff".
  - lumberjack 10y ago
    And what does a software developer have to do with developing a software like Turbo Tax? The technical part is mostly trivial. I honestly don't think it wise to go into any industry where you lack any kind of domain experience. Turbo Tax is mostly about accounting and tax law, not software development.
    - wtetzner 10y ago
      And the technical part of Twitter is somehow non-trivial? I get what you're saying, but while developing software to handle "real stuff" might be more risky and more difficult, it's also going to have some real value. Also, I don't see how anyone could ever do anything without going into an industry without domain experience. How else will you gain experience?
onion2k 10y ago
Start looking for "real stuff" you can improve with tech, rather than just software/apps that're hard to defend. To that end, I often recommend that developers go and find jobs outside of traditional software businesses for a while. If you spend a few years writing code for a publishing house or an oil company you'll see more of the challenges that affect those businesses that you can apply software to. If you spend your entire career working in a software company it's unlikely you'll realise that these problems exist because (generally speaking) software companies have already realised they're a problem and addressed them.
- estefan 10y ago
  I completely agree. I was having a conversation with a friend yesterday on this exact point.
- petra 10y ago
  Does one really have to go work there for a few years? Aren't there other ways of immersing yourself deeply ?
  - fergyfresh 10y ago
    Is there another way of immersing yourself deeply in Spanish without going to a Spanish speaking country? Not really. It's the same concept really, it gives you an entirely different outlook on things. There are complex problems out there that a lot of people in big companies still don't know that can be solved with software. Also to say no apps or games will be able to hit it big... Well, just look at Pokémon Go.
    - Chris2048 10y ago
      would Pokémon Go succeed if it wasn't based on an already popular franchise?
      - theseatoms 10y ago
        In this now-tortured analogy, think of the existing industry as the "already popular franchise."
charlesdm 10y ago
Honestly, I can see this being "the next big thing" in private equity. Buy a profitable (but, arguably, underperforming business) and improve / optimise it through smart use of technology.
- brianbreslin 10y ago
  If I had access to capital (large sums), I would do this. Take lots of staples or commodities everyone consumes and add design + tech efficiencies to boost margins, and repeat.
  - charlesdm 10y ago
    It's something I have thought about, but to really make it worthwhile, you would probably have to purchase significantly large companies. Doing an SME LBO wouldn't really be effective, since you'd actually have to be building these new technologies, which isn't cheap.
CaptSpify 10y ago
A lot of devs I know seem to think that Uber's big win was having an app. I think that's why I hear things like Tinder being labeled as "Uber for dating". I've seen a few devs that think you can just create an app that's really just a front-end to their product's webpage. The app was helpful for Uber, definitely. But moreso, was the change in the way they handled service: ratings, payment, hailing, etc. The app just facilitated those changes.
- econner 10y ago
  This is a good point, but in my mind all of these changes come about because of the app. Suddenly you have a medium that allows you to do these things you couldn't before.
  - CaptSpify 10y ago
    That's what I mean by facilitated. It wasn't having an app that made Uber successful, it was doing things that cabs couldn't. The app was just the means to the end. I think there's a lot of "we need an app" thinking in the industry, but no thought as to what that app will do.
- Grishnakh 10y ago
  Yeah, but you couldn't have done any of that without the app. At best, you could have done it all on a web page accessible by a regular PC, but that wouldn't have gotten anywhere because who's using a desktop/laptop PC while they're standing on the street looking for a ride? Having an app that runs on a portable communications device in your pocket made all those things (hailing, payment, ratings, etc.) possible to do. Really, Uber is just a naturally emergent business enabled by smartphones and the internet; the only thing holding it back was the taxi cartels and their laziness and also obsolete regulations.
econner 10y ago
There will continue to be many app-based solutions that are successful. It's now just another business medium and less like a gold rush. There is still lots of value to be created in making apps.
mooreds 10y ago
Worth reading as he talks about this exact issue: http://reactionwheel.net/2015/10/the-deployment-age.html http://reactionwheel.net/2015/10/the-deployment-age.html We're headed into a deployment age w/r/t the internet, where bigger companies roll out solutions funded internally.

by estefan 10y ago

adrianN 10y ago

> upending existing industries by using tech to drive efficiencies aka what technological progress has been doing since the very beginning.

estefan 10y ago
Not really. It's hard to see what industries twitter, tinder, instagram, etc. have been upending.
- onion2k 10y ago
  Communication, dating, and photo-sharing respectively. None of those businesses were the first to offer solutions to those problems. They're all incremental improvements to what was there before.
  - amirmc 10y ago
    I wouldn't say any of those businesses have upended the markets they're in, nor driven 'efficiency' (what's 'efficiency' in terms of dating, anyway?). From your comment, it seems you'd agree ('incremental improvements').
    - traviscj 10y ago
      Agree with your overall point but I think the efficiency Tinder is trying to increase is pretty self-evident.

alaskamiller 10y ago

That's a web 2.0 mentality. In the dot-com days most programmers thought everything had a computer solution. With the big jump with people learning to code and being able to build stuff themselves that they started looking and finding opportunities. Back then it was only a few million eyes and few hundred thousand with millions, now a days it's a few hundred million eyes and $100. It'll only get worse with inflation. You have to compete 1.5x harder than 20 years before to keep up, so really you have to compete 2x harder to be ahead. Looking for "real stuff" to improve with tech is so 2014, when everyone was pitching the Uber for X or Birchbox for X. Here's a fun thought experiment: with "real stuff" comes real unit economics, meaning without magical exponential growth of low marginal costs of software to pad $250k comp packs for developers that means software developers and engineers in the middle are going to see their comp package normalize then drop.

wtetzner 10y ago
I don't think "real stuff" has to be physical things. I think Turbo Tax would count as software that aims to improve "real stuff".
- lumberjack 10y ago
  And what does a software developer have to do with developing a software like Turbo Tax? The technical part is mostly trivial. I honestly don't think it wise to go into any industry where you lack any kind of domain experience. Turbo Tax is mostly about accounting and tax law, not software development.
  - wtetzner 10y ago
    And the technical part of Twitter is somehow non-trivial? I get what you're saying, but while developing software to handle "real stuff" might be more risky and more difficult, it's also going to have some real value. Also, I don't see how anyone could ever do anything without going into an industry without domain experience. How else will you gain experience?

onion2k 10y ago

Start looking for "real stuff" you can improve with tech, rather than just software/apps that're hard to defend. To that end, I often recommend that developers go and find jobs outside of traditional software businesses for a while. If you spend a few years writing code for a publishing house or an oil company you'll see more of the challenges that affect those businesses that you can apply software to. If you spend your entire career working in a software company it's unlikely you'll realise that these problems exist because (generally speaking) software companies have already realised they're a problem and addressed them.

estefan 10y ago
I completely agree. I was having a conversation with a friend yesterday on this exact point.
petra 10y ago
Does one really have to go work there for a few years? Aren't there other ways of immersing yourself deeply ?
- fergyfresh 10y ago
  Is there another way of immersing yourself deeply in Spanish without going to a Spanish speaking country? Not really. It's the same concept really, it gives you an entirely different outlook on things. There are complex problems out there that a lot of people in big companies still don't know that can be solved with software. Also to say no apps or games will be able to hit it big... Well, just look at Pokémon Go.
  - Chris2048 10y ago
    would Pokémon Go succeed if it wasn't based on an already popular franchise?
    - theseatoms 10y ago
      In this now-tortured analogy, think of the existing industry as the "already popular franchise."

charlesdm 10y ago

Honestly, I can see this being "the next big thing" in private equity. Buy a profitable (but, arguably, underperforming business) and improve / optimise it through smart use of technology.

brianbreslin 10y ago
If I had access to capital (large sums), I would do this. Take lots of staples or commodities everyone consumes and add design + tech efficiencies to boost margins, and repeat.
- charlesdm 10y ago
  It's something I have thought about, but to really make it worthwhile, you would probably have to purchase significantly large companies. Doing an SME LBO wouldn't really be effective, since you'd actually have to be building these new technologies, which isn't cheap.

CaptSpify 10y ago

A lot of devs I know seem to think that Uber's big win was having an app. I think that's why I hear things like Tinder being labeled as "Uber for dating". I've seen a few devs that think you can just create an app that's really just a front-end to their product's webpage. The app was helpful for Uber, definitely. But moreso, was the change in the way they handled service: ratings, payment, hailing, etc. The app just facilitated those changes.

econner 10y ago
This is a good point, but in my mind all of these changes come about because of the app. Suddenly you have a medium that allows you to do these things you couldn't before.
- CaptSpify 10y ago
  That's what I mean by facilitated. It wasn't having an app that made Uber successful, it was doing things that cabs couldn't. The app was just the means to the end. I think there's a lot of "we need an app" thinking in the industry, but no thought as to what that app will do.
Grishnakh 10y ago
Yeah, but you couldn't have done any of that without the app. At best, you could have done it all on a web page accessible by a regular PC, but that wouldn't have gotten anywhere because who's using a desktop/laptop PC while they're standing on the street looking for a ride? Having an app that runs on a portable communications device in your pocket made all those things (hailing, payment, ratings, etc.) possible to do. Really, Uber is just a naturally emergent business enabled by smartphones and the internet; the only thing holding it back was the taxi cartels and their laziness and also obsolete regulations.

econner 10y ago

There will continue to be many app-based solutions that are successful. It's now just another business medium and less like a gold rush. There is still lots of value to be created in making apps.

mooreds 10y ago

Worth reading as he talks about this exact issue: http://reactionwheel.net/2015/10/the-deployment-age.html http://reactionwheel.net/2015/10/the-deployment-age.html We're headed into a deployment age w/r/t the internet, where bigger companies roll out solutions funded internally.