Science only works predicatively if the sample size n > 1. You can run counterfactuals but you can't run experiments on history. By studying history you can d

Science only works predicatively if the sample size n > 1. You can run counterfactuals but you can't run experiments on history. By studying history you can discover recurring patterns but these are more like heuristics than laws of nature. Did you know that Germany had a similar reproduction problem pre-1914? It was also held to be the most civilized culture in Europe at the time. Or that France was the strongest nation before the Revolution? This was before a financial crisis and failed harvests tipped the balance suddenly. Point is that when things go tits up it is always less than obvious to the people involved. Even when you find evidence of 'cracks' developing that led up to that situation, they hold little predictive power when discovered in other situations. Consider this prediction for example. Right now France is receiving the brunt of attacks by Islamic extremists. Logically any public outcry and counter-reaction should start there, yes? But I think it is actually more likely in Germany, Holland or Denmark because of national psychology. They tend to go one way, or the other, you should know the Germans don't do half measures. Can I measure that scientifically? Hell no. I'd still put money down on it.