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the theorists are saying something more subtle happened. Either of: a) A coup-credible general or two or three, would have been bribed to trigger it, so that E

the theorists are saying something more subtle happened. Either of: a) A coup-credible general or two or three, would have been bribed to trigger it, so that Erdogan could identify his enemies red-handed. The rest of the plotters in the army would have been under the impression a real coup was happening. This would explain the quick surrender of the bridge soldiers without a fight, because the horrible reality that they had been duped would have dawned upon them. Or possibly more likely: b) Noises and rumours were discretely circulated by his agents that Erdogan was preparing a large purge. This is credible because it is reported the list of all the 3000 judge firings, for example, was pre-prepared (as you would expect with such a large number). Tactical leaks to the right people of would have forced an immature half-baked coup plan hastily and prematurely to be executed, in panic and to protect themselves pre-emptively from said purge. This is the scenario where Erdogan basically raised the stakes in order to call their bluff, and thus flushed his enemies out into the open. Personally I find the consequences of this "coup" to be much too neatly convenient for Erdogan, the purge too pre-meditated in appearance and logistically well organised, for the finger of prime suspicion not to point directly at him.

simonh 10y ago
Erdogan has been terrified there might be a coup for years. The idea that he'd deliberately manipulate part of the army into actually trying to overthrow him seems very thin because he'd be far too worried the coup would actually work. Could he really trust the instigators of the fake coup to back him and not go for a real coup? There's no way he'd ever take that risk, he doesn't trust anyone in the military. It's like asking someone with a pathological terror of guns to play Russian roulette. Yes you could win big, but consider the down side. The Middle East is full of conspiracy theories like this. Pretty much everything that ever happens is either an Israeli or American plot or both. I get that there are actually a lot of conspiracies and plotting going on in the region. But sometimes a failed coup is just a failed coup. I can kind of buy the big purge theory, but Erdogan would have had big lists of political enemies anyway whether he was actively plotting a purge or not. In fact hundreds of military personnel have already been tried an jailed for plotting and disloyalty over the years. Along with stripping opposition politicians of immunity and planning to try them for treason, he was already carrying out a step-by-step purge anyway. I don't think the coup plotters had any need to know about or believe in anything more in order to see what was happening and decide a coup was worth a shot.

simonh 10y ago

Erdogan has been terrified there might be a coup for years. The idea that he'd deliberately manipulate part of the army into actually trying to overthrow him seems very thin because he'd be far too worried the coup would actually work. Could he really trust the instigators of the fake coup to back him and not go for a real coup? There's no way he'd ever take that risk, he doesn't trust anyone in the military. It's like asking someone with a pathological terror of guns to play Russian roulette. Yes you could win big, but consider the down side. The Middle East is full of conspiracy theories like this. Pretty much everything that ever happens is either an Israeli or American plot or both. I get that there are actually a lot of conspiracies and plotting going on in the region. But sometimes a failed coup is just a failed coup. I can kind of buy the big purge theory, but Erdogan would have had big lists of political enemies anyway whether he was actively plotting a purge or not. In fact hundreds of military personnel have already been tried an jailed for plotting and disloyalty over the years. Along with stripping opposition politicians of immunity and planning to try them for treason, he was already carrying out a step-by-step purge anyway. I don't think the coup plotters had any need to know about or believe in anything more in order to see what was happening and decide a coup was worth a shot.