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Which strongly suggests that Turkey's days in NATO are numbered, specially now that NATO and EU betrayed Erdogan. Will Turkey get closer to Russia? I think so

Which strongly suggests that Turkey's days in NATO are numbered, specially now that NATO and EU betrayed Erdogan. Will Turkey get closer to Russia? I think so because bipolarity is on the rise, with NATO on one side, Russia+China on the other. And Erdogan apologized to Putin two weeks ago.

niftich 10y ago
Not necessarily. Turkey's just playing both sides. Why wouldn't they? Russia wants free military transit for their warships of the Turkish Straits (which it has to clear with Turkey right now [1]) and it would vastly prefer not to have to go through a NATO country. It would also appreciate another large ally in that region, or maybe another naval base and airfield. EU wants to be friendly with Turkey because it's the only other route for oil/gas pipelines towards the Middle East that doesn't involve Russia. EU is already heavily dependent on Russian natural gas, and has been seeking solutions [2] to remedy this, which Russia understandably machinates against [3][4]. NATO wants Turkey as a hedge against Russia, as a detente for Greek-Turkish disagreements, and a foothold in the Middle East. Turkey could very well be in a position to court both NATO and Russia and see what it can get. This may not imply shifting alliances, just trying to get incentives from all parties. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nabucco_pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nabucco_pipeline [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Stream https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Stream [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Stream https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Stream
- gonvaled 10y ago
  We'll see: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/erdogans-purge-may-give-nato-no-choice-but-to-expel-turkey-from/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/erdogans-purge-ma...

niftich 10y ago

Not necessarily. Turkey's just playing both sides. Why wouldn't they? Russia wants free military transit for their warships of the Turkish Straits (which it has to clear with Turkey right now [1]) and it would vastly prefer not to have to go through a NATO country. It would also appreciate another large ally in that region, or maybe another naval base and airfield. EU wants to be friendly with Turkey because it's the only other route for oil/gas pipelines towards the Middle East that doesn't involve Russia. EU is already heavily dependent on Russian natural gas, and has been seeking solutions [2] to remedy this, which Russia understandably machinates against [3][4]. NATO wants Turkey as a hedge against Russia, as a detente for Greek-Turkish disagreements, and a foothold in the Middle East. Turkey could very well be in a position to court both NATO and Russia and see what it can get. This may not imply shifting alliances, just trying to get incentives from all parties. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nabucco_pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nabucco_pipeline [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Stream https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Stream [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Stream https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Stream

gonvaled 10y ago
We'll see: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/erdogans-purge-may-give-nato-no-choice-but-to-expel-turkey-from/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/19/erdogans-purge-ma...