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Sadly, this could have been avoided 20-15 years ago when Turkey was pretty liberal and aproaching the EU. This has been the biggest mistake of the EU history: l

Sadly, this could have been avoided 20-15 years ago when Turkey was pretty liberal and aproaching the EU. This has been the biggest mistake of the EU history: letting the right declare it a christian club, and thus losing both a moderate islamic country and a bridge to the middle east. Erdogan understood long ago that Turkey would never be accepted in the EU (even with big pressure coming from USA and UK) and has used the EU membership as a bargaining chip. Now the membership option is openly dead, and Erdogan can proceed with his fundamentalist agenda. Also, having been clearly betrayed by EU and OTAN in this military coup, he really has nothing to worry about anymore. Turkey will be out of NATO soon, and it will become a Russia ally. What a blunder the west is playing: only 25 years after the URSS collapse, and instead of integrating Russia into the global institucions, the USA decided to proffit the strategic advantage to expand and provoke. We have managed to turn the possibility of true global integration, collaboration and progress into a new cold (actually warm and soon hot) war.

kyriakos 10y ago
Easily forgotten but Turkey is occupying an EU members land.
- cloudjacker 10y ago
  elaborate?
  - kyriakos 10y ago
    Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 and is still holding 1/3 of northern part of the island. In the meantime 300000 settlers from Turkey were placed in the occupied areas changing its demographics (who are basically now more than the Turkish Cypriots the invasion was supposed to protect). Turkish Cypriots are culturally different from mainland Turks (they are described as the most progressive Muslim population in the world). The island's internationally recognised government in the south (the Republic of Cyprus) is a full member of the EU since 2003 and can veto Turkey's accession. In the meantime Turkey does not recognise the Republic of Cyprus and that's one of the reasons negotiations with EU have been on halt for years now. In detail here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus
    - cloudjacker 10y ago
      okay thats what I thought, wasn't sure
- hrehhf 10y ago
  And the UK is occupying another EU member's land, northern Ireland. The UK has their reasons as does Turkey.
hx87 10y ago
It won't be easy for Turkey to become a Russian ally. For one, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflicts have to be resolved once and and for all, Russia has to drop Armenia, or Turkey has to drop Azerbaijan. None of the above is likely at this point. For another, either Turkey has to drop the "moderate Islamist" rebels in Syria or Russia has to drop the Assad government and Iran. Again, neither is likely to happen. So for the time being they're on their own. Hell, they can't even ally with most Sunni governments in the region because they've pissed all of them off by supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.
- gonvaled 10y ago
  Turkey has a lot of rubbing points with the west and that has not prevented it to be a NATO member for decades. You need to compromise and obviate issues, and this can happen between Turkey and Russia.
  - hx87 10y ago
    Turkey had one rubbing point with NATO (Cyprus), and with a minor and not very well regarded member at that (Greece). There weren't any major points of contention with the United States.
    - gonvaled 10y ago
      Not an expert, but I would say Kurds, Iran, Israel, Egypt are all points were Turkey and USA do not align very well. By the way, even USA and EU do not allign perfectly in all issues. And even the EU has a lot of differing opinions, which does not prevent them to collaborate (except brexit UK) And what's with Cyprus? According to some coments it is the main reason why Turkey is not EU member, but according to you it's just a minor issue? I am confused.
      - hx87 10y ago
        Kurds -- not an issue until Daesh became a problem, very recently, thanks to AKP Iran -- the US dislikes Iran (less and less every day), Turkey is neutral, no big disagreements there Israel -- historically not an issue, only an issue now due to AKP government Egypt -- Not an issue, until recently when the MB government got couped All of those disagreements were nonexistent or of negligible importance until recently, when they were aggravated by actions of the AKP government. The EU and US have their problems, but they don't extend to geopolitics; it's not like the two have sponsored opposing factions in a war before, with the possible and very brief exception of Germany/Croatia vs US/Bosnia in the 90s. Turkey's problems with Russia are much larger in scope and severity than anything that has ever happened within NATO or the EU. I did not say that Cyprus was a minor issue. It's a major issue with one member of NATO (Greece) whom the other members don't respect very much. The other members do not consider it much of an issue at all.
mucker 10y ago
What on Earth are you talking about. Let's presume you are right and Turkey wasn't being kept out for things like, oh as another pointed out, an occupation of Turkey and Cyprus, how does blocking them from joining the EU make them less moderate? Does the EU have magic dust that effects religious outcomes?
- pjlegato 10y ago
  Indeed, Hungary shows the EU's magic dust has little to no ability to induce moderation.
  - gonvaled 10y ago
    That's one example. There are other 27 (soon 26). Dont get we wrong: I dont think it's magic, just than then, and for Turkey, it would have worked. And more important: it would have been the right signal to send, to the whole world I sincerily think that was our best chance, ever, to kill fundamentalism for good. We will never know.
  - pas 10y ago
    Well, we don't know what would have happened if Hungary wasn't a Member State.
    - pjlegato 10y ago
      It doesn't matter, since the topic was whether being a member state ensures moderation.
      - gonvaled 10y ago
        It doesn't, but it can help. Anyway, in case of Hungary, they have already been warned by the EU a couple of times. Time will tell how this evolves, but weakening the project as UK has done will for sure reduce the incentives to return to a more moderate path. These free-market types, they are really wreaking the world. The 1% capitalism we have reached is putting a death sign in the fundamentalist market ideology, but they are for sure going down with a bang.
pjlegato 10y ago
Russia actively refused integration in order to preserve its autonomy. It was not in any sense a result of the US denying them integration. Also, you are assuming that true global integration is both possible and necessarily a good thing, which are both far from clear.
- gonvaled 10y ago
  Missile shield in Poland. I rest my case. Global collaboration and integration is surely better than conflict, and I dont see a third option, long term.
  - pjlegato 10y ago
    The missile shield in Poland was only begun years after Russia had made it very clear that it was uninterested in participating in any international institutions that would restrict its autonomy in any way. The choice between global integration and conflict is a false dichotomy. There are many other options: political decentralization and autonomy, linked by mutually beneficial and voluntary trade arrangements, for example. Besides, historically, the integration of diverse societies with vastly different cultural norms and expectations can only be done through the use of overwhelming force. It has never worked any other way.
    - gonvaled 10y ago
      > after Russia had made it very clear that it was uninterested in participating in any international institutions that would restrict its autonomy in any way Exactly! The USA was leading by example (Kyoto, International Court of Justice, ...) and Russia said “me too“. And the USA, feeling unchallenged, dared put offensive/defensive military infraestructure on the door to Russia. Well played!
      - pjlegato 10y ago
        You've changed your argument completely. At first you said that Russia wanted to join international organizations and integrate with the world, but couldn't because the US was somehow actively blocking Russia from joining. Now you are saying that the US itself didn't join certain international organizations, which encouraged Russia to also actively reject membership in international organizations. Which is it? These are two very different and opposite arguments.
spriggan3 10y ago
> This has been the biggest mistake of the EU history Turkey was never "liberal",the majority of Turkish people were always "conservative" Muslims. Istanbul doesn't represent all Turkey .this is a fantasy invented by the people who wanted Turkey in the EU. It's not the EU's fault if Turkey ends up like yet another dictatorship in the middle east. So stop blaming the EU for that. That's a lie.
- gonvaled 10y ago
  But fundamentalism was a declining ideology. The EU gave it renewed strength.
  - spriggan3 10y ago
    > But fundamentalism was a declining ideology. The EU gave it renewed strength. No it wasn't. what gave you this impression? It has never declined, not in 80's, not in 90's not in the 2000's. You're like one of those people that look at pictures of Teheran,Iran or Kabul, Afghanistan in the 70's and say "Look at these women without hijab, these countries were liberal back then". Off course not, the majority of the population was still extremely conservative back then. Turkey is no different. The EU did absolutely nothing and had no influence on the strength of fundamentalism in Turkey. Turkey has nobody but itself to blame for that.
    - gonvaled 10y ago
      Look, signals matter. 36 years ago we had a military coup in my country (Spain). We overcame the situation, in part because the King (I am fiercely anti-monarquic, but whatever), opposed the coup. We were obviously the same country, but if the King had supported the coup, I can assure you Spain would be much different (maybe in ruins). That was an internal issue, but this would have worked the same with external signals. Keeping with Spain: if the allies would have interferred in the spanish dictatorship at the end of WWII, we would have spared us a couple of decades of Franco. And so on. Dont try to make me believe that external events do not have any effect. Or, put another way: what would have happened if EU and USA would have supported military coup last friday? (Impossible, I know, since both wouldn't have risked falling on the wrong side, but I digress)
AnimalMuppet 10y ago
> Also, having been clearly betrayed by EU and OTAN in this military coup... How was he betrayed by the EU in this coup? I can see no evidence for that statement, from the limited amount I know about the situation.
- gonvaled 10y ago
  The EU in particular waited until it was pretty clear that the coup was going to fail before siding with “turkish democracy“. The dramatic events taking place in Turkey were received with silence for over 4 hours from the EU. Clearly, they were hoping that the coup would prove succesful to drop annoying Erdogan. The USA, experienced as they are, were more nuanced, siding with democracy early on, without clearly specifying what they meant. Nobody explicitely defended the elected government until the coup was obviously failing. Pretty oportunist if you ask me: https://twitter.com/gonvaled/status/754121385878913024 https://twitter.com/gonvaled/status/754121385878913024 https://twitter.com/gonvaled/status/754079673403994112 https://twitter.com/gonvaled/status/754079673403994112 https://twitter.com/gonvaled/status/754070719110193152 https://twitter.com/gonvaled/status/754070719110193152 Pretty sure Erdogan felt betrayed.

kyriakos 10y ago

Easily forgotten but Turkey is occupying an EU members land.

cloudjacker 10y ago
elaborate?
- kyriakos 10y ago
  Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 and is still holding 1/3 of northern part of the island. In the meantime 300000 settlers from Turkey were placed in the occupied areas changing its demographics (who are basically now more than the Turkish Cypriots the invasion was supposed to protect). Turkish Cypriots are culturally different from mainland Turks (they are described as the most progressive Muslim population in the world). The island's internationally recognised government in the south (the Republic of Cyprus) is a full member of the EU since 2003 and can veto Turkey's accession. In the meantime Turkey does not recognise the Republic of Cyprus and that's one of the reasons negotiations with EU have been on halt for years now. In detail here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_invasion_of_Cyprus
  - cloudjacker 10y ago
    okay thats what I thought, wasn't sure
hrehhf 10y ago
And the UK is occupying another EU member's land, northern Ireland. The UK has their reasons as does Turkey.

hx87 10y ago

It won't be easy for Turkey to become a Russian ally. For one, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflicts have to be resolved once and and for all, Russia has to drop Armenia, or Turkey has to drop Azerbaijan. None of the above is likely at this point. For another, either Turkey has to drop the "moderate Islamist" rebels in Syria or Russia has to drop the Assad government and Iran. Again, neither is likely to happen. So for the time being they're on their own. Hell, they can't even ally with most Sunni governments in the region because they've pissed all of them off by supporting the Muslim Brotherhood.

gonvaled 10y ago
Turkey has a lot of rubbing points with the west and that has not prevented it to be a NATO member for decades. You need to compromise and obviate issues, and this can happen between Turkey and Russia.
- hx87 10y ago
  Turkey had one rubbing point with NATO (Cyprus), and with a minor and not very well regarded member at that (Greece). There weren't any major points of contention with the United States.
  - gonvaled 10y ago
    Not an expert, but I would say Kurds, Iran, Israel, Egypt are all points were Turkey and USA do not align very well. By the way, even USA and EU do not allign perfectly in all issues. And even the EU has a lot of differing opinions, which does not prevent them to collaborate (except brexit UK) And what's with Cyprus? According to some coments it is the main reason why Turkey is not EU member, but according to you it's just a minor issue? I am confused.
    - hx87 10y ago
      Kurds -- not an issue until Daesh became a problem, very recently, thanks to AKP Iran -- the US dislikes Iran (less and less every day), Turkey is neutral, no big disagreements there Israel -- historically not an issue, only an issue now due to AKP government Egypt -- Not an issue, until recently when the MB government got couped All of those disagreements were nonexistent or of negligible importance until recently, when they were aggravated by actions of the AKP government. The EU and US have their problems, but they don't extend to geopolitics; it's not like the two have sponsored opposing factions in a war before, with the possible and very brief exception of Germany/Croatia vs US/Bosnia in the 90s. Turkey's problems with Russia are much larger in scope and severity than anything that has ever happened within NATO or the EU. I did not say that Cyprus was a minor issue. It's a major issue with one member of NATO (Greece) whom the other members don't respect very much. The other members do not consider it much of an issue at all.

mucker 10y ago

What on Earth are you talking about. Let's presume you are right and Turkey wasn't being kept out for things like, oh as another pointed out, an occupation of Turkey and Cyprus, how does blocking them from joining the EU make them less moderate? Does the EU have magic dust that effects religious outcomes?

pjlegato 10y ago
Indeed, Hungary shows the EU's magic dust has little to no ability to induce moderation.
- gonvaled 10y ago
  That's one example. There are other 27 (soon 26). Dont get we wrong: I dont think it's magic, just than then, and for Turkey, it would have worked. And more important: it would have been the right signal to send, to the whole world I sincerily think that was our best chance, ever, to kill fundamentalism for good. We will never know.
- pas 10y ago
  Well, we don't know what would have happened if Hungary wasn't a Member State.
  - pjlegato 10y ago
    It doesn't matter, since the topic was whether being a member state ensures moderation.
    - gonvaled 10y ago
      It doesn't, but it can help. Anyway, in case of Hungary, they have already been warned by the EU a couple of times. Time will tell how this evolves, but weakening the project as UK has done will for sure reduce the incentives to return to a more moderate path. These free-market types, they are really wreaking the world. The 1% capitalism we have reached is putting a death sign in the fundamentalist market ideology, but they are for sure going down with a bang.

pjlegato 10y ago

Russia actively refused integration in order to preserve its autonomy. It was not in any sense a result of the US denying them integration. Also, you are assuming that true global integration is both possible and necessarily a good thing, which are both far from clear.

gonvaled 10y ago
Missile shield in Poland. I rest my case. Global collaboration and integration is surely better than conflict, and I dont see a third option, long term.
- pjlegato 10y ago
  The missile shield in Poland was only begun years after Russia had made it very clear that it was uninterested in participating in any international institutions that would restrict its autonomy in any way. The choice between global integration and conflict is a false dichotomy. There are many other options: political decentralization and autonomy, linked by mutually beneficial and voluntary trade arrangements, for example. Besides, historically, the integration of diverse societies with vastly different cultural norms and expectations can only be done through the use of overwhelming force. It has never worked any other way.
  - gonvaled 10y ago
    > after Russia had made it very clear that it was uninterested in participating in any international institutions that would restrict its autonomy in any way Exactly! The USA was leading by example (Kyoto, International Court of Justice, ...) and Russia said “me too“. And the USA, feeling unchallenged, dared put offensive/defensive military infraestructure on the door to Russia. Well played!
    - pjlegato 10y ago
      You've changed your argument completely. At first you said that Russia wanted to join international organizations and integrate with the world, but couldn't because the US was somehow actively blocking Russia from joining. Now you are saying that the US itself didn't join certain international organizations, which encouraged Russia to also actively reject membership in international organizations. Which is it? These are two very different and opposite arguments.

spriggan3 10y ago

> This has been the biggest mistake of the EU history Turkey was never "liberal",the majority of Turkish people were always "conservative" Muslims. Istanbul doesn't represent all Turkey .this is a fantasy invented by the people who wanted Turkey in the EU. It's not the EU's fault if Turkey ends up like yet another dictatorship in the middle east. So stop blaming the EU for that. That's a lie.

gonvaled 10y ago
But fundamentalism was a declining ideology. The EU gave it renewed strength.
- spriggan3 10y ago
  > But fundamentalism was a declining ideology. The EU gave it renewed strength. No it wasn't. what gave you this impression? It has never declined, not in 80's, not in 90's not in the 2000's. You're like one of those people that look at pictures of Teheran,Iran or Kabul, Afghanistan in the 70's and say "Look at these women without hijab, these countries were liberal back then". Off course not, the majority of the population was still extremely conservative back then. Turkey is no different. The EU did absolutely nothing and had no influence on the strength of fundamentalism in Turkey. Turkey has nobody but itself to blame for that.
  - gonvaled 10y ago
    Look, signals matter. 36 years ago we had a military coup in my country (Spain). We overcame the situation, in part because the King (I am fiercely anti-monarquic, but whatever), opposed the coup. We were obviously the same country, but if the King had supported the coup, I can assure you Spain would be much different (maybe in ruins). That was an internal issue, but this would have worked the same with external signals. Keeping with Spain: if the allies would have interferred in the spanish dictatorship at the end of WWII, we would have spared us a couple of decades of Franco. And so on. Dont try to make me believe that external events do not have any effect. Or, put another way: what would have happened if EU and USA would have supported military coup last friday? (Impossible, I know, since both wouldn't have risked falling on the wrong side, but I digress)

AnimalMuppet 10y ago

> Also, having been clearly betrayed by EU and OTAN in this military coup... How was he betrayed by the EU in this coup? I can see no evidence for that statement, from the limited amount I know about the situation.

gonvaled 10y ago
The EU in particular waited until it was pretty clear that the coup was going to fail before siding with “turkish democracy“. The dramatic events taking place in Turkey were received with silence for over 4 hours from the EU. Clearly, they were hoping that the coup would prove succesful to drop annoying Erdogan. The USA, experienced as they are, were more nuanced, siding with democracy early on, without clearly specifying what they meant. Nobody explicitely defended the elected government until the coup was obviously failing. Pretty oportunist if you ask me: https://twitter.com/gonvaled/status/754121385878913024 https://twitter.com/gonvaled/status/754121385878913024 https://twitter.com/gonvaled/status/754079673403994112 https://twitter.com/gonvaled/status/754079673403994112 https://twitter.com/gonvaled/status/754070719110193152 https://twitter.com/gonvaled/status/754070719110193152 Pretty sure Erdogan felt betrayed.